Vision 2030: Employment Scenario in Nagaland

  The ‘Nagaland Vision 2030’ document outlines the broad contours of development which the State seeks to undertake over the next decades or so. In case of employment, the document argues that envisioning change in Nagaland’s economy is closely associated with generating employment opportunities to a fast growing young labour force.   In continuation of the Morung Learning series on Vision 2030, the current scenario, areas of concern and recommendation of employment in Nagaland are given below.   Employment: Current Status Nagaland has a Workforce Participation Rate of 49.24%. In other words of a population of about 19.78 lakhs (2011 Census), approximately 9.74 lakhs are workers.   Normally the workers are engaged in different sectors of the economy – Primary, Secondary and Tertiary – depending on the nature of economic activity.   Primary sector includes Agriculture allied sectors like Forestry & Logging, Fishing etc. The secondary sector includes Manufacturing (Registered & Unregistered), Electricity, Gas, Water supply, and Construction etc. Tertiary (or Services) sector includes trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, financial, real estate & professional services, Public Administration, defence and other services.   In Nagaland, agriculture still employs nearly 60 per cent of the total employment but its contribution of the sector to the Gross Domestic Product is around 30 per cent. In other words, the productivity of this sector is relatively lower than the productivity of the other two sectors.   Estimation of Educated Unemployment While assessing the magnitude of unemployment in the State, the following issues emerge according to the Vision 2030.  

  • Taking the number of students as enrolled and passing out at the various stages of education namely at Class X, Class XII and at the graduate level, the number of educated persons looking for employment is around 12,909 annually. This includes about 968 students studying outside and who pass out annually as per records of the post Matric scholarship. The numbers have also been taken after subtraction of roughly about 1000 students who are students from outside the State.
  • Against this annual output of about 13,000 educated youth, there is a possibility of an intake of about 3000 to 3500 people in the Government annually. This is calculated on the basis of an attrition rate of about 2.5 per cent to 3 per cent of Government employees by way of retirement, deaths and resignations etc. out of the total Government employees of about 1, 20,000. This will roughly leave about 9500 numbers of educated unemployed without opportunities every year in addition to existing number 70,000 (approx) people on the live register of the Employment Exchanges.
  • Creating employing opportunities for these 9500 educated youth and the space to absorb the backlog of unemployed will be one of the main challenges for the Vision.
  • The 6th Economic Census for which provisional figures are available mentions that there are a total of 1.61 lakh persons employed in different enterprises in the State. With an overall employment elasticity of 0.58, for the 9500 educated to be absorbed in the enterprises the overall growth rate in the economy should be around 10 percent.

  WAY FORWARD As per the exercise, it is only the traditional sectors which seem to be providing the employment impetus. Barring minerals, most are unorganized informal sectors. While the traditional sectors may be important in the short term, in the long run of 10 to 15 years, transformation of the urban economy towards modern service sectors is necessary.   (i) Primary Sector The ability of the agricultural sector to absorb the educated unemployed is limited. One reason could be the low productivity in the sector - more 60%of the State’s work force engaged in agriculture but contribute less than a third of the State’s GSDP. However, adequate attention needs to be given to this sector as more than 70 percent of the State’s population live in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture. Policies to increase productivity in the agricultural sector will help ease the pressure on urban areas to create employment avenues as activities in rural areas become more lucrative.   The Vision 2030 envisages a two-fold strategy: Development of Intensive and Inclusive Agriculture Clusters (IIIACs) with the aim of increasing growth in the economy and spin-off activities like marketing and agro-processing that can absorb the urban educated. Simultaneously, it will increase productivity and incomes on account of focus on Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, cardamom and coffee which will also help reduce the outflow of labour from rural areas.   (ii) Secondary Sector The manufacturing sector has potential in generating employment for the educated. It is imperative that a conscious strategy is developed to induce employment in the manufacturing sector. A new industrial policy of the State akin to “Make in India” needs to be formulated by the state government.   Construction sub-sector has also potentiality to absorb labour. Skill upgradation of youth for employment in agro-processing industries and for increasing the skill basket in the construction sector will reduce the unemployment issue in the State.   (iii) Tertiary Sector In the tertiary sector skill upgradation of the youth with focus on the anticipated areas of growth like marketing for agro-based industries, repairing of machinery required for road construction activities, masonry and related activities will enhance the employment potential of this sector.It is necessary to focus on some of the modern service sectors like finance and communications. This is particularly important as these modern service sectors are the areas where future employment will be the highest.   Another Area which the State should focus on is exploitation and promotion of the pool of sporting talents available in the State. To realise this potential amongst the youth, state of the art sporting infrastructure should be in place in all the districts by 2030. This will not only boost the latent talents but also create employment opportunities.     Major Thrust Area for Employment: Skill Development   Vision 2030 envisages to skill the youth in Nagaland to make them employable. In a study conducted in 2015 by the National Skill Development Corporation, it was estimated that in the 2014-22 period, Nagaland will have an excess supply of minimally skilled people in the workforce.   However, in the semi skilled and skilled labour category, there will be shortage of labour force. The imperative is therefore to impart skills to the population with target towards improving the income earnings of the State. In this context, it will be crucial for the State to skill the youth with basic schooling background in different trades such as construction, serving of automobile and electronics etc. to meet the anticipated demands. In turn they will be in a position to contribute economically to the growth and development of the State.   Skill Weighting The aggregate skilling requirement that the State should aim is estimated to be 1.76-2.19 lakhs in the next 6 years. The internal demand for skilled labour in the next 6 years would be 57,000 (calculated @9500 per year). This figure captures only the educated unemployed who graduate from the education system and who are to be internally absorbed within the State if the IIIACs-led growth strategy is followed.   The remaining 1.19-1.62 lakhs spread over 6 year period is the number of people who have to be skilled to enable them to find gainful employment in the rest of the country.   About 19,800- 27,000 is the number youngsters who will require skills annually to enhance their earning potentials. On an average about 9000 students fail to enter class IX and about 11,000 students fail to pass Class X exams. This works out to approximately 20,000 people for whom one form of skill or the other has to be provided to ensure that these youth are engaged in economically productive activities.  

(Source – Nagaland Vision 2030, Government of Nagaland, 2016)