The economy exposed?

Imlisanen Jamir

The recent accusations against Indian tycoon Gautam Adani and his namesake megacorporation, the Adani Group, have created ripples in the business world. The accusations, made by short-selling firm Hindenburg Research, have led to a loss of $51 billion in market capitalization for Adani corporations and a drop in Adani's personal net worth.

The accusations include having ties to criminal enterprises, sidestepping fraud investigations, manipulating revenue figures, and inflating stock prices. The Adani Group has countered the accusations and has called them a “calculated attack” on India as a nation.

The rise of Adani is intertwined with the story of modern Indian politics. He started his business during a time when the government was liberalizing the economy and encouraging private enterprise. Adani took advantage of the moment and started a plastics-importing business that vertically integrated the supply chain. He expanded his empire throughout the 90s to include railroads, textiles, and geothermal power.

Adani's rise to power is also tied to his close relationship with current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whom he defended during early controversies.  Adani's business and net worth ballooned and he was awarded government contracts.

The accusations against Adani and his companies raise concerns about the broader implications for Indian politics and business, as well as the global economy. The accusations cast a shadow on the Indian government's policies and the country's business environment. It also highlights the importance of corporate transparency and accountability in protecting investors and ensuring fair competition.

Over recent days, the company's stock fell 28% after Credit Suisse Group AG stopped accepting bonds from Adani Group as collateral for margin loans to its private banking clients. The selloff comes after Adani successfully completed a $2.5 billion stock sale, which was India's largest follow-on offering. The situation has become a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop as investors are dumping shares and asking questions later. Adani Group bonds and shares have fallen, with Adani Ports and Adani Power taking the hardest hit.

The selloff has erased Adani's title as Asia's richest person and wiped out $44 billion of his wealth gains from last year. The poor cash generation at Adani companies and the high multiple they traded at raise concerns about their ability to service debt if things don't go as planned.

The Hindenburg report builds on existing concerns about Adani's rapid pace of acquisitions, massive debt buildup, and overleveraging. Hindenburg's report accuses Adani of using shell companies in Mauritius, Panama, and the UAE as tax havens, routing undisclosed funds to his private businesses and appearing on the public companies' balance sheets. The report also accuses Adani of insufficient accounting oversight and associates with criminal organizations. As a result, Hindenburg claims that Adani company shares are overvalued by as much as 85 percent.

If the allegations against Adani are true, it would mean that a large amount of money is exposed. Adani himself has admitted that Indian banks have a 32 percent share in his companies' loans and half of the Adani Group's borrowing is done through international bonds. If Adani Enterprises went bankrupt, it would result in a wipeout of investments and projects in several countries and a heavy hit to large-scale development in India.

Despite the recent findings, Adani's business has survived for now. The recent follow-on public offering (FPO) met its target, but Adani's share prices, company valuations, and personal net worth remain lower than preferred. India's stock exchange is no longer one of the world's top five most valuable, and financiers may have more questions about how things are done there. Adani may have held the line this past week, but his ground seems to be shrinking. The danger is that the Indian economy’s ground could sink along with him.

Comments can be sent to imlisanenjamir@gmail.com