Massive Earthquake may hit Northeast

•    Call for compliance with building codes •    Enhanced preparedness required for  effective response to earthquakes •     Recent tectonic shifts put NE at risk   NEW DELHI, January 6 (TNN): The Union home ministry’s disaster management experts have warned of a bigger catastrophe, earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.2 or greater on the Richter scale which may hit the already ruptured Himalayan region.   They say quakes with higher intensity than the one that struck Manipur on Monday are likely to rock the region in future. The tectonic shift a series of these recent earthquakes have caused in the region -- Manipur 6.7 (Jan 2016), Nepal 7.3 (May 2015) and Sikkim 6.9 (2011) -- have re-ruptured the plates that had already developed cracks during previous temblors. This has led to conditions which might trigger multiple earthquakes which may go up to 8.0 in magnitude.  

In a post-Nepal disaster assessment, the MHA’s National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) has warned of enhanced risk around the “ring of fire garlanding the entire north India especially the mountains”. This was also highlighted at a recent meeting organised by the Centre in Arunachal Pradesh’s capital Itanagar where policy-makers from 11 hill states had participated and resolved to develop a common building code for mountains.   Speaking to TOI, NIDM director Santosh Kumar said the interconnected plates across Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and India pose a bigger danger, and predicted a disaster of bigger magnitude that awaits hill states and parts of Bihar, UP and even Delhi which fall under the second worst seismic Zone IV classification. The North-East and other hill states fall under severe seismic Zone V.   Though some Indian scientists have reservations, but international experts, prominently Roger Bilham, the seismologist of University of Colorado and an authority on the subject, are of the opinion that “the current conditions might trigger at least four earthquakes greater than 8.0 in magnitude. And if they delay, the strain accumulated during the centuries provokes more catastrophic mega earthquakes.”   Kumar said the Centre has taken measures to sensitise the governments of all the hill states to adopt a common building code that is different from the rest of India. The recent Itanagar deliberations on sustainable development of mountain states were part of Centre’s earthquake risk mitigation strategy to sensitise policy-makers about “the natural time bomb”.   Stress has increased in the mountains of north-east since the Nepal earthquake. Monday’s 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Manipur shows the stress has not been fully released, it has only become worse. “The collision between the Himalayan plate in the north and the Indo-Burmese plate in the east and the risk created as a result is the highest at this moment,” according to NIDM experts.   India is divided into four seismic zones. The most active Zone V comprises of the whole of north-east, parts of north Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Gujarat and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Delhi comes under Zone IV and is considered as one of the high-risk areas.   According to MHA’s own assessment, the regulatory mechanism in Indian cities that prominently figure on the disaster map are weak and any disaster striking in any one of these populous cities would cause huge casualties.   The UN office for disaster risk reduction (UNISDR), which considers India a valuable partner and had even acknowledged the leadership of minister of state for home Kiren Rijiju and made him a disaster risk reduction champion for Asia two months ago, has emphasised India’s need for compliance with building codes and the necessity for an “enhanced preparedness for effective response to earthquakes.”  

Can animals actually predict natural calamities?

 

A goose in Dimapur may have actually anticipated the January 4 earthquake

  Morung Express News Dimapur | January 6   Earthquakes are a sudden phenomenon and seismologists have no way of knowing exactly when or where the next one will hit. On the other hand, it is believed that animals can anticipate earthquakes, though there is no scientific evidence to support it.   More than a week before the January 4 deadly 6.7 magnitude earthquake which jolted the North East region and Bangladesh inflicting human casualties and properties damage, a goose in Dimapur may have actually anticipated the impending calamity, if one has to go with the claim of animals actually predicting earthquakes.   “The goose had been acting very strange for more than a week before the January 4 earthquake- cackling unusually in high pitch tones all the time, even in the middle of night,” owner Toshirenla who stays at Taxes colony in Dimapur said.   Toshirenla said the goose, one out of seven that she rears, would at times even approach them with the peculiar cackling for no apparent reason. “We had never heard the goose act so restless, or cackle so nervously,” she said. However, the goose reportedly stopped her ‘abnormal behaviors’ right after the earthquake. Fearing that something might be wrong with the goose’s health, the owner took the bird to the vet on January 4, after the earthquake.   However, the veterinary doctor, Dr Michael Imchen, who is a visiting consultant at Animal Concern located at Duncan Basti found nothing wrong with the health of the bird.   “There was nothing unusual with the goose’s health. The bird was healthy and fit.  No external injury too,” Dr Michael said.   The veterinary doctor, who also holds special interest in animal psychology, said he asked the owner to take the goose and report back if the bird acts strange as before. The owner called back to say the goose was surprisingly acting in his normal behavior.   “I strongly believe the goose was acting strange because it had anticipated the impending earthquake and maybe in a way warning us of the approaching calamity,” Dr Michael said while reinforcing the claim that animals can actually sense or detect changes in the Earth.   The belief that animals and birds can detect an impending earthquake or a natural calamity by showing unusual behavior has been around for centuries but without any scientific evidence. However, researchers around the world still continue to pursue the idea.   Countless pet owners around the world claim to have witnessed their cats and dogs acting strangely before the ground shook—barking or whining for no apparent reason, or showing signs of nervousness and restlessness.   Even the United States Geological Survey (USGS), an agency that provides scientific information about the Earth conducted a few studies on animal prediction, but nothing concrete had come out of it.   After the 2011 magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan, Hiroyuki Yamauchi of National Tsing Hua University and colleagues conducted a survey on how cats reacted ahead of the quake. The survey found that six or more days before the devastating earthquake, some cats engaged in unusual behaviors and became more stressed out.   In 373 B.C., historians recorded that animals, including rats, snakes and weasels, deserted the Greek city of Helice in droves just days before a quake devastated the place.