Probability forecast of tercile categories* (below normal, normal, and above normal) of rainfall over India during August, 2023. The figure illustrates the most likely categories as well as their probabilities. (Image Source: IMD)
Morung Express News
Dimapur | July 31
The North-East States, including Nagaland, are likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall during the month of August. However, the region is very likely to experience above normal monthly maximum temperatures, informed the India Meteorological Department on Monday.
Normal to above normal rainfall is expected over most parts of subdivisions adjacent to and along the Himalayas, east central India, and some parts of east and North-East India, stated the IMD's 'Forecast Outlook for the Rainfall during Second Half of the South-West Monsoon Season (August – September) and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature during August, 2023’ issued on July 31.
Probability forecast of Maximum Temperature during August 2023. The white shaded areas represent climatological probabilities. (Image Source: IMD)
Additionally, normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the South Peninsula and many parts of western parts of northwest and central India.
Overall, the IMD predicted that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole for August is very likely to be below normal (<94% of Long Period Average).
Meanwhile, the IMD forecasted that monthly maximum temperatures in August are “very likely” to be above normal over most parts of the south peninsula, east, and NE India, and many areas of western parts of northwest and central India.
Some areas of north peninsular India, east central India, and along the plains of the Himalayas, however, are likely to experience normal to below normal maximum temperatures.
Probability forecast of Minimum Temperature during August 2023. The white shaded areas represent climatological probabilities. (Image Source: IMD)
Further, there is a forecast for above normal minimum temperatures over most parts of India, except some parts of northwest India.
Looking ahead to the second half (August to September period) of the SE monsoon season, 2023, the IMD said it expects rainfall over the country as a whole to be very likely normal (94 to 106% of LPA), most probably on the negative side of the normal.
“Normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of subdivisions adjacent to/along the Himalayas, east central India, and some parts of east and northeast India. Below normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of Peninsular India and western parts of northwest and central India,” it projected.
Meanwhile, the IMD noted that currentlyweak El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. Based on the latest MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System) and other climate models, these conditions are likely to intensify further and continue up to early next year, it added.
