Finally a road map appears to have been sketched for an amicable solution to the Government of India-NSCN (IM) dialogue process. Concurrently, both sides have now agreed to extend the ceasefire in Nagaland by one more year and in the process promising to move “expeditiously” discussing all “substantive” issues there is. If one is to analyze the current talk status wherein both parties are reported to have agreed on a broad framework to resolve the Naga issue politically, extension of the ceasefire by a comfortable one year period will now allow them to reach a settlement during this time frame. Earlier there were reports about the option of making the ceasefire irrevocable and coterminous with the peace talks. Although this has not taken place, the understanding emerging out of the latest talks table appears to be that both the GoI and the NSCN (IM) will now try to make the one year extension of the ceasefire as a time bound period to work out the concrete details of a settlement. From all indications, the outcome of the latest talks in Bangkok will go down as a defining moment in the long and intricate process spanning over nine years.
There are some pointers that can be drawn in from the latest agreement to extend the truce period. Firstly, negotiators on both sides have surprised many analysts and the public in general by extending the truce period by one year. One common argument was that by extending the truce period by only six months the last time round, the NSCN (IM) would get better results out of the process by putting the necessary pressure on the Indian side. This ploy appears to have worked well in certain aspects. So no one would have guessed that the ceasefire would be extended by one full year. Though surprising and unexpected, by stretching the truce period, it shows that both sides have now full confidence on each other’s expectations and ability to make the dialogue process reach a logical conclusion. In particular, by agreeing to go for a one year truce period, the NSCN (IM) may have won some major concessions to be able to reiterate its commitment and investment on the nine year long peace process.
Another noteworthy aspect is that both the Government of India and the NSCN (IM) may finally have a clear enough road map to see. This should also allow both entities to work in a time bound manner. In a way, the one year period works well for both sides and also for the process itself. More significantly, the State of Manipur goes to polls within this particular truce period itself. As far as New Delhi’s failure to address the Naga people’s aspiration for integration is concerned, election time in Manipur can be used simultaneously as an official exercise (referendum) to allow the people themselves to decide their own destiny. One year is likewise significant for the State of Nagaland as the next Assembly Election is due in early 2008, which is in fact only a little more than a year away. If both New Delhi and the NSCN (IM) is able to manage the intervening one year period judiciously, there is every possibility that the present DAN government under Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio may, instead of calling for the next elections, step down to hand over the reins of power to a new dispensation and one that is hopefully a national government that is broad based and representative of all sections of the Naga people.
