Angshom Phom and Chan Seth
North East Christian University
Bangladesh was on the course of graduating from the Least Developed Countries by 2026 as per the data from the United Nations. The country's economy was growing rapidly, driven by its garment industry and low-end manufacturing, with the government aiming to become a middle-income country by 2021. Politics seemed to be moving towards stable democracy, with regular elections, a vibrant civil society, and a lively online media.However, since the violent January 2014 elections, the country's politics have severely regressed. Both the ruling Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh National Party have engaged in regular street battles, using activists, thugs, and security forces.
Bangladesh's political climate has been extremely polarized, with the Awami League government and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) at odds since the controversial 2014 elections.The BNP, supported by the Jamaat-e-Islami, has called for strikes and transportation blockades, resulting in violence and over 120 deaths since January 2015.The political unrest has taken a toll on the economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowering its forecast for Bangladesh's economic growth by half a percentage point.The political polarization and violence have created a combustible mix, with the International Crimes Tribunal and graft charges against BNP chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia further fueling the tensions.
On 5th June, 2024, the initial protests sparked against the reinstatement of a quota system for government jobs which reserves 30% of positions for relatives of veterans of the 1971 War of Independence. Students demanded a merit-based systemas there are not enough decent jobs for university graduates, making unemployment one of the major root causes. The government repeatedly claimed to be open to change, but the quota system benefitted only Hasina's party politically. The protest quickly spread throughout the country due to the government's violent response and growing public dissatisfaction, combined with years of frustration over Hasina's authoritarian rule and declination of democracy.
Bangladesh's longtime leader Sheikh Hasina resigned from the office on 5 August 2024 and left the country after escalating protests against her authoritarian rule erupted by Student and non-Student allies in the Dhaka Street. Angered by the government's long history of brutal crackdown on demonstrators, including massive arrests, torture, the extrajudicial killings.Following the protests, the High Court reduced the number of jobs allocation to war veterans' families but that was insufficient and evolved into broader demands for regime change and Hasina's resignation.The government responded to the protests by shutting down all educational institutions, deploying the student wing of the ruling party, and using armed forces to suppress the protests. The government also imposed a nationwide curfew, shoot-to-kill order, blackout of local communications and social media access.Recent reports showed over 650 reported deaths, which is likely an underestimate due to government concealment. Hasina's rule became increasingly repressive, making Bangladesh a dangerous environment for journalists, writers, artists, and opposition politicians.The military and security forces were faced with a choice between Hasina stepping down or engaging in even more violent repression, which could have led to massive bloodshed and destruction. The massive protests coupled with a refusal by the security forces to engage in further violence, made Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India after 15 years in power.
The army took over and announced a transitional government, with General Waker-Uz-Zaman promising justice for those killed during protests and an investigation into the deaths.A curfew was imposed by the police forces, but protesters continued to celebrate in the streets, with some looting and violence reported.Hasina's rule, once promising, left Bangladesh politically and economically weakened, with Islamist gaining power and political violence escalating. Bangladesh is currently dealing with significant challenges, including: a damaged political culture and civil society, an undermined garment sector and economy, growing Islamist power and influence, a violent and dangerous political environment. The military promised an interim government with election to be held sooner, but its history of interfering in politics raises concerns.
What could be the impacts on Northeast States of India?
Bangladesh's growing instability adds another challenge to India's already complex relationships with its neighbouring countries. The political turbulence in Bangladesh not only disrupts the stability of the subcontinent but also poses a significant challenge to India's regional influence and strategic interests. As the largest power in South Asia, India’s ability to manage this instability is crucial for maintaining its leadership role and safeguarding its security, economic, geopolitical interests and influences in the region. The evolving crisis underscores the growing pressures on India's diplomatic, security, and economic frameworks as it navigates increasing uncertainty in its neighbourhood.Bordering states, having experienced similar situations in the past, face the risk that the current crisis could lead to increased infiltration of migrants from Bangladesh, potentially intensifying existing ethnic and cultural tensions.
The political crisis in Bangladesh is likely to have significant repercussions on the northeastern region of India, particularly in the areas of social, economic, and security concerns. However, the most profound impact is expected on the region's social fabric, largely due to the potential influx of refugees from Bangladesh. This immigration could disrupt the delicate demographic balance, heightening ethnic tensions and straining social cohesion in states grappling with complex cultural dynamics. The crisis may further aggravate resource distribution challenges, intensify security risks along the porous borders, and potentially destabilize local economies.The ongoing political crisis in Bangladesh is poised to significantly affect the indigenous communities of Northeast India. This region, home to a diverse array of ethnic groups with distinct languages, cultures, and traditions, is highly sensitive to demographic changes. As tensions escalate in Bangladesh, there is a growing concern that the influx of refugeescould exacerbate existing ethnic and social tensions in the region.
The northeastern states of India, particularly Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura, have a history of immigration from Bangladesh.This has often led to tensions between the indigenous populations and migrants, particularly over issues of land, employment, and political representation. The influx of refugees from Bangladesh could threaten to further alter the delicate demographic balance, creating pressures among indigenous communities about the preservation of their cultural identity and political autonomy. Past experiences, such as the Assam Movement in the 1980s, demonstrate how demographic shifts can lead to large-scale social unrest and violence.The demographic changes due to migration have created complex socio-political challenges. The local populations have long expressed concerns about losing their land, identity and political power. This has been a key factor in the demand for updating the National Register Citizens (NRC) in Assam.The issue has remained a central point to the political discourse, often resulting in communal tensions between different ethnic and religious groups in the region.
The northeastern states are economically underdeveloped compared to other regions of India, with limited access to resources and infrastructure. A large-scale influx of refugees would place an additional burden on these resources, exacerbating competition for jobs, land, and public services. Indigenous communities, many of whom already faced marginalization, could find themselves further displaced economically and socially as they compete with migrants for limited opportunities.For many indigenous groups in Northeast India, their cultural identity is closely tied to their land, language, and traditional practices. The arrival of large numbers of refugees, particularly from a different cultural background, poses the risk of cultural erosion. Indigenous communities may feel their way of life is under threat as migrant populations grow, leading to fears of assimilation or loss of cultural distinctiveness. This could lead to heightened ethnic nationalism and movements to protect indigenous rights, which in turn could deepen social divisions.
The political crisis in Bangladesh presents a multifaceted challenge to the indigenous communities of Northeast India. The region's delicate social, economic, and cultural fabric is vulnerable to the pressures of migration, and the impacts could be far-reaching. Addressing these concerns requires a sensitive, balanced approach from both the Indian government and regional leaders to protect the rights and identities of indigenous communities while managing the humanitarian aspects of the crisis.
M. Chan Seth, BA 5th Semester-International Relations, North East Christian University
Angshom Phom, BA 5th Semester- Political Science,North East Christian University
