Dr Maongsangba
Tarun Gogoi, who is not charismatic but proven to be an adept political strategist, has proved all the prophets of doom and the psephologists wrong. He cut to size the forces that tried to checkmate him in this election and flattened the jinks of not any political party or alliance winning consecutively that had haunted Asom politics for the last three decades. A political strategist that he is, Gogoi has had the last laugh; and made it to the Janata Bhavan for the second time in a row. Though, the total number of seats had dwindled down from 70 in 2001 to 53 in this election, the former Bodo liberation Tiger had propelled him to power for the second term.
A road that had look bumpy for Gogoi and riding on the crest of an anti-incumbency wave; he managed to kept the Bodo tribals in good humor and limped back to power on the crutches of the ex- rebel turned politician- Hagrama Mohilary. Congress with 53 in its kitty and pre- poll ally, Hagrama with 11 MLAs with one independent supported by BPPF (Hagrama) totaled up the magic figure of 64. This is a clear indication that the Bodo tribals will call the shots and play a major role in Asom politics. No sooner than the deck was cleared for the Congress to form the government, the Independents scramble themselves and made a beeline to Gogoi to help cobble up a coalition government but Gogoi reportedly rebuffed the gesture. There seemed to be some influential section of Congress leaders who are aware of the pitfalls of shutting out AUDF and tried to rob in AUDF to the coalition. Badaruddin Ajmal too is also not averse to mend fences with Congress. But Gogoi who termed the AUDF as communal party turned down the proposal.
Gogoi’s repeated articulation that the Congress would not require the support of AUDF in the post poll scenario proved correct. Whereas Bhubaneswar Kalita, the APCC president and a strong contender for the top post, who had not ruled out the possibility of taking their support fell by the wayside. Apart from Kalita, Congress top gun whose name was doing the rounds as possible replacement to Gogoi; Devananda Konwar and other Congress heavyweights such as Ardhendu Dey, Nelamoni Sen Deka, Hemopravo Saikia, Haren Das and Anjan Dutta bit the dust in the hustings. This time round, Gogoi will have to walk a tightrope. His political trouble could well emanate from within, possibly from those who could not make it to the Council of Ministers coupled with compulsion of coalition politics; his second innings may not be as smooth sailing as his first tenure in office.
The Congress main opponent and Gogoi’s bete noire Brindaban Goswami and Prafulla Kumar Mahanta lost from second seat Borscalla and Nagaon constituency respectively. Mahanta secured third position in Nagaon. However, both won from Tezpur and Behrampur. But this was no consolation for Brindaban in particular, given the fact that AGP and its allies came a cropper, despite putting up a brave front in the run-up to the polls. The AGP had improved its seats from 20 to 24. The AGP leadership overestimated its strength and totally failed to read the minds of the voters and analyze the political situation in proper perspective. The majority of the AGP MLAs had come from lower Asom, the bastion of the regional party. The AGP was totally routed in the Barak valley, Jorhat, Tinsukia, Lakhimpur, Dhemaji and Uldaguri Districts. In upper Asom, which comprised of 7 Districts, the AGP won only 5 seats. In Golaghat District alone, the AGP bagged 3 seats of the 5 assembly seats. Amguri and Tingkong were also bagged by the AGP.
The controversial IMDT Act has pitted the AGP and the AUDF on a collision course. Despite these major differences, the AGP leadership nourished the ambition of taking the support of the AUDF in order to form an AGP- led coalition government even before the state went to the polls. This has greatly confused even the die-hard AGP supporters. Nothing was more damaging than this nexus, which was well reflected in the poll results. The AGP was not only thrashed in the battle of ballots but its electoral allies BPPF (R) and ASDC (Holiram) TGP drew a blank. However, its left allies CPI (M) and CPI managed to humbled two Congress stalwarts, Bhubaneswar Kalita, president APCC and Hemo Pravo Saikia, a sitting MLA and widow of Hiteswar Saikia from Rangia and Nazira constituencies respectively. Senior CPM leader Udhav Barman also bagged the Sarbhog seat.
For AGP, this should be a time for reflection on what went wrong. Mahanta who was a cult-figure in the height of Asom agitations, an architect of Asom Accord and a two- time chief Minister of Asom has reduced to a non-entity. In terms of credibility, Mahanta had suffered several setbacks in his political career starting from bigamy to secret killings during his second tenure. Both AGP and AGP (P) would do well to introspect and nothing short of a rapprochement between the two warring groups would help strengthen regional forces in the state.
The nascent AUDF headed by Ajmal was formed ahead of the elections striking a posture against the Congress managed to upset the applecart of the Congress in the minority-dominated constituencies and wrested 10 seats. Though Ajmal captured both Salmara south and Jamunamukh seat, Hagrama hijacked his dream run of becoming the deputy chief Minister. The party won 3 in Barak valley 2 in Nagaon District, 2 in Sonitpur District and Salmara, Dhubri and Bilasbari constituencies also bagged by AUDF.
The Congress retained its traditional stronghold in the tea belt and upper Asom. It went on to improve its tally in the tribal belt of Karbi Anglong and NC Hills. The Congress notched up 22 of the 34 seats in upper Asom and captured 4 seats out of 5 in Karbi and NC Hills. It is important to be mentioned here that in the industrial town of Tinsukia and Jorhat, the Congress had swept the poll by winning all the ten seats from the two Districts. However, it lost ground in Barak valley and garnered only 6 of the 15 seats. The party had won 8 in the 2001 elections. The party managed to garner 19 seats from lower and central Asom. If you look at the elections results closely, Congress was the only party, which made its presence felt across the state. It was only in Karimganj District that the party failed to open its account.
The BJP captured 10 seats, two more than what they got in the last election -2001. The party got 5 in Barak valley alone. In upper Asom, the BJP wrested the Dibrugarh seat from AGP by a narrow margin of 176 votes and retained Duliajan seat. Lumding, Behali and Rangabara were also bagged by the BJP.
In terms of total vote share of the major political parties, the Congress vote share dipped to 31.14 per cent from 39.6 per cent. The total vote share of AGP was 20.76 per cent slightly higher that what they secured last time. The BJP and the AUDF shared 10 seats each, but the BJP has a slight edge over AUDF in terms of vote share by securing 11. 93 per cent and the AUDF 9. 03 percent. The NCP, which got 1 seat managed to poll 2.3 per cent little less than what they polled in 2001 securing 4 seats.
The two women that made it to the Gogoi’s cabinet deserved special mention. Promila Rani Brahmo has set a record in the Bodo political history by winning four consecutive terms from Kokrajhar (East) constituency. She is also the first Bodo woman to become an MLA. Promola Brahmo defeated BPPF (R) Supremo Rabiram Narzary from Kokrajhar (East) by a margin of 2,235 votes. The other women who found a berth in the cabinet is Ajanta Neog, the sitting MLA from Golaghat constituency. She is the lone Congress nominee that won from Golaghat District. She trounced another AGP stalwarts, Atul Bora, a former MLA and the present General Secretary of AGP by a convincing margin of little over 16,000 votes
The other notable woman winner is wife of Santosh Mohan Dev, Union Minister for heavy Industries- Bithika Dev a debutant, humbled BJP heavyweight Bimalangsu Roy, the sitting MLA from Silchar. Jibanta Ghatawar wife of former union Minister Baban Singh Ghatawar won from Moran Seat in her second attempt. However, the best winner award of the recently concluded political bout goes to Ajanta Neog and Promila Rani. Both knocked out two political heavyweights sans powerful and influential better half.
The writer is Sr. Lecturer, Dept of Political Science, F.A.C.
