Dr Maongsangba
Asom will go to the assembly polls on 3rd and 10th April 2006 to elect 126 members legislature. Months of speculation over the possible tie up between the parties have been settled and it is clear that it would be a four-cornered contest. The major political players are the ruling Congress that has a seat adjust with BPPF led by former rebel leader Hangrama Mohilary. The GP led alliance comprised or CPI, CPI (M), ASDC, Trinomal Gana Parishad and BPPF (Rabiram Narzary faction) P. K Mahanta’s AGP (progressive) will go with NCP and AUDF may flirt with any parties except Congress and BJP. The BJP find itself in a quandary with no parties willing to cohabite with her. So, at least in Asom, the BJP is a political pariah and will have to fight with its back to the walls in the ensuing polls.
There appears to be no waves in favor of any political formations and the political picture looks hazy as to the final outcome of the final results. The pre-poll alliance indicates that no single party will be in a position to reach the magic figure of 65 and it appears that the state is heading towards a fracture mandate. In the post poll period, the possibilities of Independents and even smaller party pulling the strings cannot be ruled out. It is also quite possible that there could be another round of political re-alignment in the scramble for political power. If you look at the last five-assembly election in Asom, no political parties had won second consecutive term. Its a million dollar question whether Tarun Gogoi would be able to break the jinx of not winning two consecutive terms by any political party in the last thirty years in Asom.
The Congress stole the thunder in the assembly election - 2001 and captured 70 seats and went on to capture 8 Loksabha seats in the parliamentary election -2004. But in the run up to the forthcoming assembly polls 2006, all is not well in the Congress camp for more reasons than one. The Achilles heels for the ruling Congress is the lackluster performance of the ruling Congress coupled with the repealed of the controversial 1M (DT) Act, much to the chagrin of the minorities. The Muslim community squarely blamed the Congress for the lackadaisical manner in which the Congress handled the legal battle in the Supreme Court. This triggered a series of protest by the Muslim that hitherto was the traditional vote bank of the Congress. The disgruntle elements among the minorities went on to form the Asom United Democratic Front (AUDF) under the president ship of Badaruddin Ajmal the scion of Ajmal group. To add misery to the Congress woes, the recalcitrant A.F Golam Osmani, the MP from Barpeta has decided to contest the assembly poll as an independent. The AUDF leaders had vowed to bring down the curtains on the political careers of some influential Congress leaders in the ensuing elections. However, the nascent AUDF has suffered a setback and the party has split vertically in the run up to the polls.
Secondly, the tea tribes of Assam, the citadel of the Congress had moved away from the Congress and beginning to assert themselves by dumping the Congress. This was clearly indicated in the last parliamentary elections 2004, where the Congress war horse Paban Singh. Ghatawar, a former union minister was humbled from his traditional tea-tribe dominated district - Dibrugarh.
Thirdly, the Kakopathar incident where nine innocent people were mowed down by the security forces has not gone down well on the electorates as it occurred in the constituency of Gogoi’ s close confidant.
Fourthly, the people in the Hills District of Karbi Anglong are still seething with anger over the mishandling of the Karbi- Dimasa issue by the government in Dispur.
The ticket distribution has also caused discontentment among the rank and files and dissidence is reported to be brewing in some key constituencies. This could spell disaster for Tarun Gogoi. The pluses for Congress are that the oppositions are not united; all opposition parties have a common agenda to throw out the incumbent government, but all parties are singing in different tunes, despite their avowed dislike for the Congress. And lately, the Congress received a shot in the arm when the influential ATTSA suspended its hostilities against the ruling Congress. TI1e crossing of swords between the AGP (P) and AGP in some key constituency may only propel the moribund Congress candidates.
The main opposition AGP, which was born of a mass movement in 1985 under the leadership of Prafula Mahanta, Bhrigu Phukan, Lalit Rajkhowa is not as popular as itused to be. The party that was built with a difference, by the sacrifices of thousands of martyrs had scripted history by capturing political power from the university Hostel in 1985. However, having taken over the reins of power and comfortably saddled in the Janata Bhavan, the AGP leadership turned a blind eye to the continuous infiltration of the foreign nationals from the porous border, nor could they identify the illegal migrants, let alone deport them to their homeland, notwithstanding the fact the AGP had come to power on the plank of foreign national issue. As people’s representatives, they could not inspire confidence and belied the hopes and aspiration of the people.
Now, the founder president of the AGP, Mahanta is out in the cold heading a splinter group - AGP (Progressive). P. K Mahanta who was considered as a demi-god during the Aom agitation is now a pale shadow of former self and languishing in the sidelines of Aom politics heading an obscure political outfit. Lalit Rajkhowa a firebrand leader and a former Advisor to AASU, former Transport Minister in the first P.K. Mahanta government who had fallen out with Mahanta had died in a tragic road accident some years back. And Bhrigu Kumar Phukan, the former powerful Home Minister having suffered a string of setbacks in his chequered political career died in Delhi recently before he could file his nomination from the prestigious Jalukbari assembly constituency in the ensuing polls.
The AGP marked by periods of fluctuating fortunes had split twice in its 20 years of existence. The first split took place in 1991, when the second in command of the AGP Bhrigu Phukan, Brindaban Goswami and Pulakesh Barua, the then Speaker revolted against the dictatorial functioning of Prafula Mahanta and broke ranks with the AGP to launched the NAGP. However, the outfit could not play any significant role in Asom politics and later merged with its parent party -AGP. The second split occurred in 2005 in the wake of the allegations of the second marriage of the party supremo, P.K Mahanta. This personal issue snowballed into a major political controversy and resulted in the ouster of P.K Mahanta from the party that he helped built from the grass roots levels. The AGP is now headed by Brindaban Goswami and the party had officially projected him as the chief Ministerial candidate should the AGP- led alliance obtain a majority. He is pitted against Kartik Hazarika AGP (P) a former AASU president in the prestigious Tezpur constituency.
In the assembly election- 2001, the AGP forged an alliance with BJP and this had a negative bearing and was made to bit the dust in the husting. The AGP secured only 20 seats and the BJP garnered 8 seats. Even the Chief Minister PK Mahanta came a poor third from the Dispur assembly constit1iency; however, he managed to win from his home constituency Behrampur in Nagaon District. The alliance of AGP with BJP in 2001 antagonized the Muslims and voted enbloc for the Congress, which bagged 70 seats, comfortable enough to form the government on its own.
After having committed a political builder in 2001, the AGP leadership went scouting for their old ally, turned full circle, swung like a pendulum from right to the left; and managed to forge an alliance with the left for the ensuing poll. This is a desperate attempt to checkmate the Congress and queer the pitch for Gogoi, so as to halt his ascent to power for the second time in a row. The AGP is not only taking advantage of the anti¬ incumbency factor but its campaign Managers are leaving no stone unturned to put across the message to the electorates on the part played by the party in getting the controversial IM (DT) Act quashed after a prolong legal battle in the supreme court.
All said and done, both Tarun Gogoi and Brindaban Goswami appears to have dug in their heels with voices of dissent emanating from certain key constituencies following the denials of tickets to their respective party stalwarts. It exposes chinks in the Armour of both the parties. One notable example is in Barama constituency where joining of Prabin Boro, a former AASU president injected a fresh dose of motivation to the AGP and subsequent allocation of the ticket, ignoring the claim of an influential lady- Reka Rani Das Boro, a former Minister in the Mahanta Cabinet. Rekha Rani who felt slighted, lose no time in tendering her resignation from the party and decided to take on the young AGP candidate as an independent candidate. In Guwahati East, two AGP Stalwarts Biraj Sharma (IND) former state Minister and Biren Bhaishya, former union Steel Minister are all set to lock horns. Likewise, there are quite a few Congress rebel candidates slugging it out with official candidates. However, the trump card for the AGP is the influential student’s outfit-AASU, who exercises tremendous influence across the state, may pitch in to salvage and bolster the AGP campaign.
The AGP (P) headed by PK Mahanta, which has a seat sharing arrangement with NCP and others may put a spanner in the wheels of the AGP in some constituencies. So far Mahanta is concerned, this election is going to be an acid test and failure to secure a respectable tally of seats in the forthcoming poll may go the NAGP way.
The nascent AUDF may also upset the applecart of the Congress in the Muslim dominated constituencies. The BJP is the only major national party contesting without any seat adjustment or in alliance with any other party at least overtly. However, one cannot effort to underestimate the BJP given the fact that Nagaon and Mongodoi parliamentary constituency was wrested by the BJP candidate in the parliamentary elections- 2004. BJP is also expected to do well in the Barak valley and might spring some surprises in the Bramaputra valley. It would be no surprise if the BJP play the role of a king maker in the post election scenario.
The writer is Senior Lecturer F.A.C.
