It is never easy to predict election results unless off course you have the scientific knowhow to conduct exit or opinion polls. Even there, experts have got it wrong where actual results contradict the forecast made by poll pundits. In Nagaland we are yet to adapt such exercise. And so to write about the outcome of an election in this column is perhaps going to be a risky proposition but nevertheless sometimes it’s ok to go by your instinct. I may get it right or wrong but the important thing is that voters have already given their verdict on February 23, 2013, the day of polling. And so, as for the results, which will be known today as counting begins, one thing is certain, the Naga People’s Front (NPF) under the leadership of Neiphiu Rio will easily emerge as the single largest party. And this will mean that the NPF is going to form the next government. And here are the reasons why.
Even without a majority, as it has happened in the last Assembly Elections, the NPF will easily find enough support of Independents to form the government. And the NPF may have to do with just a very few of such support, to be invited by the Governor to form the next government. You see, only if the largest and second largest parties are neck to neck in terms of the numbers, there is the possibility of Independents or smaller parties joining either of the two bigger parties (NPF or Congress). However as per this writer’s assessment, the NPF will emerge as the single largest party by a long way i.e. ahead of the Congress by some distance. When this happens, the NPF will find enough suitors to choose from besides off course its pre-poll alliance partners if they do win some seats. In the case of Nagaland, where Independents are expected to emerge as the third largest bloc after the NPF and Congress, this time around though it looks like Rio will not need all of them. Therefore Rio will be more selective in choosing those that he wants in his government. In other words, Rio will be in a position to pick and choose unlike in the past when Independents have bargained for power and loaves of office.
But Rio may not even require the support of the Independents to form the next government. And this is the other scenario i.e. the NPF getting an absolute majority on its own. According to the assessment done by this writer, Rio and the NPF party he leads, they are likely to cross the majority mark quite comfortably. It is quite interesting yet significant that post February 23 when polls were conducted, no Congress leader has had the guts to stick out its neck to say that they will return to power. Perhaps, the Congress very well knows the writing on the wall. Chief Minister Rio on the other hand has on more than one occasion expressed confidence of the NPF getting an absolute majority and forming the next government. Throughout the campaign period Rio carried with him this confidence which was lacking in the Congress. The Congress on the other hand is likely to face its biggest defeat, even worst then its showing in 2003 and 2008. Its position is so bad that even with the backing of the non-DAN parties like the NCP or RJD and some of the Independents; it is still unlikely to cross the majority mark. The NPF on the other hand is a sure winner whether as the single largest party or even the prospect of getting an absolute majority. It’s going to be game, set, match to the NPF. My election result says that Neiphiu Rio will form the next government with or without a majority. Off course this is only the personal assessment of this writer. We will have to wait and see the real results come out today.
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