strategic
Monalisa Tase and Monojit Das
Trump’s Tariffs: A Shift in Global Trade Alliances?
Recent announcements of sweeping U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump have continued to reshape global trade dynamics, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Amid this uncertainty, Trump’s comments regarding India injected a dose of diplomatic optimism. As the July 9 deadline loomed for potential 26 % tariffs on Indian imports, Trump stated that a U.S.–India trade agreement could be “finalized soon,” anticipating reciprocal reductions in India’s trade barriers. Concurrently, sector-specific trade discussions are now underway, targeting a fall 2025 framework to boost market access and supply-chain integration.
For India, this represents both opportunity and challenge. Access to the massive U.S. market could fuel exports and attract investment. However, pressure to reduce tariffs may constrain India’s policy space and “strategic autonomy,” particularly in sectors where China’s interests are rising. To navigate this complexity, India is pursuing a calibrated trade strategy: engaging with the U.S. while preserving its multilateral commitments and seeking parallel frameworks with Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and others.
As the July 9 deadline approaches, the outcome of the subsequent trade rounds could set the tone for India’s trade relations through the rest of 2025 and beyond.
Iran–Israel Conflict Escalates: Security Repercussions and India’s Dilemma
June 2025 saw a dramatic escalation in hostilities between Iran and Israel among the most intense clashes in recent years. Iran’s Supreme Leader reiterated calls for Israel’s removal and promised retaliation, while satellite intelligence revealed the deployment of multiple B 2 spirit bombers to Camp Thunder Bay on the island of Diego Garcia, close to the western Indian Ocean. Comprising nearly one-third of America’s B-2 fleet, positioned within the striking distance of Iran and against the Houthi rebels of Yemen.
India, being heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, this conflict could severely disrupt energy security, energy imports, shipping lanes and maritime commerce. Growing military preparedness in the Indian Ocean brings global conflict closer to India’s periphery where it urges India to take lead in de-escalation of this tension as it maintains a good relation with both Iran and Israel by intensifying diplomatic efforts with all stakeholders, alongside reinforcing energy diversification strategies, and safeguarding maritime interests through naval readiness in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), giving equal importance in protecting the Sea Line of Communications (SLOCs).
Operation Sindhu: Evacuating Students from Iran
India launched Operation Sindhu in mid-June to evacuate Indian nationals from Iran and Israel. Coordinated by the Ministry of External Affairs and backed by the IAF, over 4400 people—including students and professionals—have been airlifted via Armenia in a multi-phase operation.
This large-scale rescue illustrates India’s growing capability in non-combatant evacuation operations (NEOs) and underscores its diplomatic agility. It reinforces India's image as a reliable protector of its diaspora and enhances its humanitarian appeal in the West Asian neighborhood. The continuing operation is a valuable addition to India’s soft-power, positioning New Delhi as a responsive and capable regional actor.
Dalai Lama’s Succession Announcement and Its Diplomatic Ramifications
As the 14th Dalai Lama nears his 90th birthday on July 6th, 2025, his remarks on preparing for the recognition of his successor have drawn sharp responses from Beijing, which insists that any reincarnation must receive Chinese state approval. For India, this reignites a longstanding diplomatic dilemma. Hosting both the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile, India must now navigate renewed Chinese pressure while reaffirming its commitment to religious freedom and the rights of exiled communities, without provoking unnecessary escalation in already strained bilateral ties.
Border Diplomacy with China: Progress and Pitfalls
At the June 2025 SCO Summit in Qingdao, India adopted a firmer stance on its border dispute with China. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s call for a “permanent solution” marked a clear rhetorical escalation from earlier appeals for an “early resolution,” signaling New Delhi’s unwillingness to accept temporary disengagements or status quo arrangements.
India’s refusal to endorse the SCO joint declaration, due to the lack of strong language on cross-border terrorism further underscored its strategic resolve. Singh’s address served both as a rebuke to Pakistan’s ongoing support for extremism and a critique of China’s reluctance to engage meaningfully on the Line of Actual Control.
Amidst these developments, the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra after four years added a layer of symbolic diplomacy. While deeply spiritual, the pilgrimage also represents a controlled gesture of détente from China, occurring even as India accelerates infrastructure and military preparedness along its northern frontier.
Together, these moves reflect India’s evolving strategy pairing cultural outreach with hard-edged diplomacy. The message is clear: symbolic gestures must be met with substantive progress, and assertive engagement is here to stay in India’s approach to China.
A Symbol of Friendship: PM Modi Honoured in Ghana
In a heartfelt and symbolic gesture, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was conferred with Ghana’s highest civilian honour—the Officer of the Order of the Star of Ghana for global leadership during his official visit to the West African nation. The honour reflects not just a diplomatic milestone, but a growing people-to-people bond between India and Africa.
Addressing Ghana’s Parliament with warmth and conviction, PM Modi spoke of shared democratic values, mutual respect, and the long-standing history of India-Africa solidarity. His visit was marked by genuine camaraderie with Ghanaian leaders and the signing of key agreements in healthcare, digital innovation, defence, and capacity building.
This honour goes beyond protocol and stands as a recognition of India’s rising role as a reliable partner in Africa’s development journey. At a time when global powers are jostling for influence on the continent, India's approach, rooted in cooperation and shared growth, stands out. For many watching the ceremony, it wasn't just a medal being awarded; it was a powerful symbol of enduring friendship and a shared future of promise.
Conclusion: Balancing Power and Principle in a Shifting World
The recent events are building an increasing complexity of global geopolitics from Trump’s tariff tremors in Asia to flashpoints in the Middle East and South Asia, cross- border dynamics with Pakistan, and its swift response in Iran for evacuating its citizens showcase regional assertiveness. While welcoming the process of Dalai Lama succession highlight deeper diplomatic tightropes.
To navigate this turbulent landscape requires a multi-pronged approach. India must act with foresight and flexibility: deepen trade ties with East Asian partners, secure diversified energy routes, reinforce deterrence along the LoC, expand humanitarian outreach, and handle Tibet’s religious sensitivities with quiet resolve.
In an era defined by flux and fragmentation, India’s ability to balance hard power with humane diplomacy, and sovereignty with smart alliances, will shape not just its future, but the very architecture of the emerging global order.
Moreover, India’s continued collaboration with Africa, as symbolized by the Prime Minister’s recent honor in Ghana must be followed up with extensive deals and track II diplomacy, besides involving trade councils for further strengthening the bond. Such sustained efforts will be vital in affirming India’s role as a trusted global actor rooted in cooperation and shared growth.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University.
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News).
