From record growth to unprecedented decline, Census 2027 offers Nagaland a chance to settle the numbers
Moa Jamir
Nagaland enters Census 2027 with a demographic record unlike any other State. In the 2001 Census, it recorded a 64.41% decadal population growth, the highest in India, against the national average of 21.54%. The figure was subsequently disputed even by State Government.
A decade later, the picture reversed. The 2011 Census recorded -0.58% decadal growth, making Nagaland the only State in India to register negative population growth during 2001–2011.The extraordinary reversal raises a fundamental question: how much reflected actual population change, and how much reflected limitations in enumeration?
The question matters because Census numbers are not merely statistical. For a State heavily dependent on central transfers, population is an important variable in planning, resource allocation and assessing development needs. It can also have administrative and electoral significance, although Census and electoral-roll exercises serve different purposes.
The relationship between population and fiscal transfers is, however, not straightforward. Under the 16th Finance Commission’s horizontal devolution formula, population carries a 17.5% weight, based on the 2011 Census, while demographic performance carries 10%, rewarding States with lower population growth. Thus, a larger population can strengthen a State’s weight under one criterion, while higher population growth can work against it under another.For Nagaland, whose 2001 and 2011 figures moved in opposite directions, the accuracy of the underlying Census data assumes added importance.
The 2027 exercise offers an opportunity to address that uncertainty. The Centre has notified 40 questions, compared with 29 in the 2011 Population Enumeration. The expanded schedule includes spouse and parents’ particulars, nationality, digital literacy, educational stream, permanent address, bank accounts, mobile numbers and identity documents, alongside conventional demographic, education, employment, migration and fertility information.
The inclusion of Aadhaar, Voter ID, Passport and Driving Licence could provide additional reference points for verification and possible duplication. But UIDAI data as of July 31, 2026, puts Nagaland’s Aadhaar saturation at 62.54%, with 14,34,571 live Aadhaar numbers against a projected population of 22,94,000. Aadhaar, therefore, cannot independently account for the State’s population.
The electoral roll presents another useful but limited reference. Nagaland had 13.45 lakh electors as of January 1, 2025, while a Special Intensive Revision is underway. But an electoral roll is a register of eligible voters, not a population register.The challenge, then, is not simply adding identifiers but working out how different datasets can streamline enumeration without treating any one as definitive. Bank accounts and mobile subscriptions, too, have limitations, including uneven access and multiple-SIM ownership.
More data also means greater responsibility. The collection of identity, financial and contact information raises questions around privacy, data security, access and eventual use, even with confidentiality safeguards under the Census Act, 1948.
There is also the human factor. An expanded questionnaire makes the enumerator’s task more demanding, requiring more questions, verification and resolution of discrepancies. Nagaland has completed House Listing and Housing Census, including self-enumeration, with Population Enumeration scheduled for February 2027.
State Census authorities have urged citizens to cooperate and provide accurate information, reminding the public that furnishing false information is punishable under law.
For Nagaland, Census 2027 is an opportunity to settleits demographic uncertainty. The new questions can provide more cross-checks and richer data, but the credibility of the final figure will ultimately depend on comprehensive coverage, accurate recording, effective verification and how the exercise is implemented on the ground.
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