By - Asangba Tzudir
Nagaland’s Economic Survey 2024‑25 paints a compelling yet challenging portrait of a state in a state of flux where the state is poised for rapid transformation but in dire need strategic planning and execution in order to truly unlock its potential in consideration of the various forms of resources. With an economy valued at around 5.3 billion (Rs 45,989 crore) in 2024‑25, and an impudent target of reaching $10 billion (Rs 86,772 crore) by 2029‑30, the survey sets a very high bar of achieving an annual growth rate of approximately 12.5%.
The question is whether this milestone can be reached and to achieve largely hinges on how the nagging systemic gaps are addressed while intensifying the existing strengths. As we know, Agriculture forms the backbone of Nagaland’s economy underpinning the livelihood of over 60% of Nagaland’s population. On a positive note, in spite of all the existing challenges coupled with uncertainties of sorts, the state’s farmers have increased crop production by 2% from 1.157 million MT to nearly 1.179 million MT in 2023‑24. Fruit yield also rose by 3% to 342,476 MT. It is also attested by the various fruit festivals, the latest being the Mango festival held recently at Longmatra town, Kiphire. However, vegetable production declined by 1.6% while spices improved by 3%. This indicates probably a touch shift in cropping patterns, and which also potentially opens up avenues for various value added agribusiness.
However, a concerning issue is the usage of fertilizer and pesticide which is said to have plummeted by more than half between 2019–20 and 2023–24. The question here is – whether it is an indicator that may undermine productivity? On the animal products, the state remains only around 42.6% self-sufficient, importing the rest and thereby indicating a glaring gap in the demand-supply index of meat, dairy, and egg.
Another pointer on achieving the annual growth rate of approximately 12.5% is the macroeconomic front, where the real GSDP growth is only 5.59%, a marked slowdown from 12.25% in the previous year. This suggests that there is a deeper growth challenge. In order to achieve this growth target and also to sustain, it will require going beyond ‘bright projections.’ Inputs from history also attests to the gap between the nominal and the real which only reinforces this caution.
Now, if the goal “Viksit Nagaland” 2030 is to be achieved, policymakers must first prioritize strategic interventions that accelerate structural transformation. There still is a very long way for agricultural modernization in totality, and also shifting towards high-value crops and horticulture. Yes, certain steps are being taken for horticulture and processing units, but it needs to be scaled up and expanded. Then, there is need for bolstering animal husbandry, fisheries, sericulture, and allied sectors not only to enhance rural income but also close the self sufficiency gap. The case of fisheries where projects will definitely outweigh the fish production in the state is in need of serious evaluation. Another important aspect in the growth of economy is to have proper linkages.
Another largely potential area is the service sector which contributes nearly two-thirds of GSDP. It calls for targeted investments in tourism, vocational training, youth entrepreneurship, and digital connectivity. To this end, connectivity, power, infrastructural development and skilling needs revamping and which will rally bolster equitable growth. Above all, governance and policy measures need to be smart as well as timely and effective and thereby move beyond ‘target statistics’.
While the Economic Survey’s projections are bold and articulate a vision that lies at a threshold between aspiration and attainability, the attainability of which requires well grounded policies backed by long-term structural reforms. In short, Agriculture needs to really evolve while the service economy needs to mature, and infrastructural expansion. It is time for Nagaland’s economy to move beyond the dependency syndrome and move towards “Viksit Nagaland” 2030 beyond the slogan towards a hard-earned reality.
(Dr. Asangba Tzudir writes a weekly guest editorial for The Morung Express. Comments can be emailed to asangtz@gmail.com)
