By Moa Jamir
The recent Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) report covering the period from July 2023 to June 2024 has painted a concerning picture of Nagaland's unemployment landscape. The state, which had witnessed a steady decline in unemployment rates over the past few years, has now experienced a sharp reversal, with a 65% surge in the unemployment rate, following a three-year positive trend.
The overall unemployment rate now stands at 7.1% for those aged 15 years and above, up from 4.3% in the previous year. This marks a stark contrast to the consistent progress made over the past few years, where the unemployment rate had fallen persistently from as high as 25.7% in 2019-20 to 4.3% in 2022-23.
This reversal places Nagaland in an unsettling position, ranking it among the states with the second-highest unemployment rate in India, just behind Goa (8.5%). Moreover, Nagaland's unemployment rate is more than double the national average of 3.2%. The report also highlights a more pronounced unemployment crisis in urban areas compared to rural regions, indicating a potential urban-rural divide in employment opportunities.
One of the most alarming aspects of the report is the surge in youth unemployment, always a crucial indicator of a state's economic health. Over one in four young people in Nagaland is unemployed, a figure that is particularly concerning given the state's demographic profile, spiking from 18.5% in 2022-23 to 27.4% in 2023-24, representing nearly a 50% increase. The rise is particularly stark in urban areas, where the youth unemployment rate has hit 39.6%, compared to 23.1% in rural regions. High youth unemployment has both economic and social implications.
Another critical area highlighted by the PLFS report is the sharp rise in unemployment among educated individuals. With the rate for this group climbing from 8.9% in 2022-23 to 13.4% in 2023-24, representing a 50.6% increase, Nagaland now ranks second among Indian states in this category, behind Arunachal Pradesh (20%). Despite possessing higher education qualifications, a significant portion of the state's youth remains unemployed, and this trend could be indicative of a mismatch between education and market demands, as well as a lack of employment opportunities. This too marks a reversal of a positive trend—Nagaland had steadily reduced educated unemployment from a high of 36.6% in 2019-20 to single digits (8.9%) in 2022-23.
While the latest report presents a challenging picture, it is important to recognize that the PLFS findings are based on a sample survey and may not fully capture the complexities of unemployment across all regions of Nagaland. The survey covered 71 villages, 568 households, and 2,393 individuals in rural areas, along with 128 blocks, 1,024 households, and 4,616 individuals in urban areas.
Additionally, since the data is based on the usual status (principal + subsidiary status), which considers individuals who either worked or were actively seeking work for a significant part of the last 365 days or worked at least 30 days during the reference period, the survey may underestimate the true scale of unemployment. This could also explain why the unemployment rate appears lower in rural areas compared to urban ones.
Despite these limitations, the report provides valuable insights into the unemployment trends in the state and crucial insights into the economic trajectory of Nagaland.
While Nagaland's unemployment data for 2023-24 signals a setback, those at the helm of affairs should reflect on the strides made in previous years and implement corrective measures. Among other things, this should include an analysis of why there was a reversal, as well as targeted interventions, particularly for youth, and ensuring that educational qualifications are better matched with job opportunities.
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