Prof. Mithilesh Kumar Sinha
Finance Officer, Nagaland University
The results of the just concluded elections to the State Assemblies of Assam, Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry underscore some emerging trend in Indian politics and business of profit and loss. The results are likely to make the fortunes for some businesses and mar some others. The election result suggests significant messages from the electorate as well.
The results clearly show that “aam aadami’s” top priority continues to be development and effective law and order.
The delivery and services and development have become the dominant axis affecting voting behaviour. For example, Mamata Banerjee brought development and strengthen delivery of services in West Bengal and won the election second time. Of Bengal’s 90 million population, 80 million are getting rice at ` 2 a kg or even less; state subsidy support on food grain has increased almost 12 times from ` 516.32 crore during 2010-11 to ` 6000 crore.
Around 5,212.94 km of roads were improved and renovated during 2011-2015 compared with 3,320.28 km during 2007-2011; the number of below poverty line (BPL) households electrified increased from 18.18 per cent as on March 31, 2011 to 90.71 per cent in January from 2016; the number of above poverty line (APL) households electrified increased from 52.36 per cent to 97.88 per cent during the same period.
Both Jaylalithaa and Banerjee can now justifiabley give Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal competition in laying claim to the prime ministerial chair of a government comprising regional parties at the Centre in 2019.
The electorates rejected the communal politics. In Assam, the defeat of AIUDF president, Badruddin Ajmal suggests that the migrant and indigenous Muslims support base he was banking on voted with more discernment than he anticipated. Indigenous Muslims never support anti-national activities. The win of BJP at Malda in West Bengal shows that the Muslims rejected the anti-national activities those are being promoted by the Congress, The TMC and CPM in the regions. The minority people too want development and they consolidate against anti-national activities.
The Assembly elections prove that India is a politically diverse country where no single party or leader can claim to dominate the national stage or lay claim to national leadership. It is true that not all election victories signal big changes, but BJP’s huge success in Assam heralds a significant shift in politics not just in the State but possibly in the region as well.
On the day of the results, the SUN TV run by the family of M Karunanidhi stock lost `2,229 crore in the market value. Its market capitalisation fell from ` 16,845 crore at its close on 19th of May to ` 14,616 crore at the end of the date.
In Assam, the business to watch would be that of AIUDF’s Badruddin Ajmal, who lost in the Assembly elections. Ajmal’s perfume business, touted as one of the largest in the world, could come under the curious eyes of the new BJP government.
Shares of liquor companies showed a mixed trend. While United Spirits fell by 3.69 per cent and Radico Khaitan lost 1.95 per cent against a 1.1 per cent Niffty fall, Tilaknagar fell 0.31 per cent. But United Breweries gained 0.61 per cent. The continuity in government is likely to help the proposed ` 4,356 crore solar project in Ramanathapuram by Adani group.
‘Congress Mukt Bharat’ seems to be materialising. Technically, Congressmen maintain it was the anti-incumbency factor that played against them but concede the party losing ground nationally is a major concern. Actually, the Congress Party is now disconnected from the grass roots and is clearly reluctant to look beyond the charisma of the Nehru-Gandhi family. It is still obsessed with dynasty politics and uses the same to revive its electoral fortunes despite rejection from the electorate over and over again.
The Left’s abysmal performance in the Assembly elections show it waning popularity among agricultural workers, semi-skilled workers and farmers who have historically identified themselves with the sickle.
