By Akangjungla
“The future of childhood hangs in the balance.” In many ways, the future is now. Today’s actions and decisions will determine the future children inherit. Unfortunately, today's children live in a world fraught with crises, poverty and discrimination; where far too many are deprived of opportunities to meet their full potential, UNICEF cautioned in its flagship report released on World Children’s Day (November 20). The UNICEF’s latest State of the World’s Children Report examines the forces and trends shaping the world today and reflects on how they might shape the future. The report shares insights into three megatrends that will inevitably impact children’s lives between now and 2050, which includes demographics shifts, climate and environmental crises, and frontier technologies. The report also presents three future scenarios- possible outcomes, not predictions- for how children could experience the world of 2050.
According to the report, 20.8 million children were newly displaced within their countries, mostly because of conflict and disasters in the year 2023. In its projection of shifting populations in the futures, in the 2050s, the number of children in the world is predicted to be roughly the same as today: about 2.3 billion. Underlining the need for the right to a safe place to live, the report notes ‘without targeted interventions, it is likely that many more children will reside in high-density urban communities by 2050, where access to water, health care and education is suboptimal and where exposure to violence and environmental hazards will put their well-being at risk.’
Under the climate and environmental crises, the report cites that approximately 1 billion children currently live in countries that already face high risk of climate and environmental hazards. The report projects that children in 2050 are likely to face dramatically increased exposure to extreme climate hazards compared to those in 2000: 8 times as many children globally will be exposed to extreme heatwaves; 3.1 times more children exposed to extreme river floods; 1.3 times more children exposed to extreme droughts; and 1.2 times more children exposed to extreme tropical cyclones. Noting ‘climate crisis as a child rights crisis’ the report heightens the need to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure for schools and homes; green technology; climate education; and policy reform to phase out fossil fuels.
The third megatrend - frontier technologies - brings out the stark digital divide despite the technological advancements globally. As per the report, today, nearly 26% of people in low-income countries are connected to the internet, compared to over 95% in high-income countries. Advocating for ‘digital equality for every child,’ the UNICEF’s flagship report cites ‘to ensure that every child can take advantage of new breakthroughs - including AI, next-generation renewable energy and vaccine breakthroughs - we need to ensure equitable access, robust regulation and child-centric design.’
The State of the World’s Children Report 2024 also presents three scenarios of what the future might look like for children depending on rates of progress and on the actions of decision-makers: A future shaped by business-as-usual trendlines; A future shaped by delayed development (in which decision makers choose a more fragmented path, leading to greater inequality and environmental degradation); A future shaped by accelerated development (in which decision makers opt for a more inclusive and sustainable path). However, the report also makes clear that these scenarios are possible outcomes, not predictions. They are a call for reflection and action: the future remains ours to shape; and an affirmation of “We can and must do better.”
Taking into account the tests and prospects posed by the three megatrends, UNICEF makes a call to the governments and the public sector, businesses, non-governmental and human rights organizations, and civil society to ‘invest in education, services, and sustainable and resilient cities for children; expand climate resilience in infrastructure, technology, essential services and social support systems; Deliver connectivity and safe technology design for all children.’ The hope for the world as we look to 2050 is to make “a choice” - to choose a different course – “one where every child flourishes and shapes the world around them.”
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