Upsurge in COVID cases as restrictions loosen in Nagaland

• ‘State at a critical juncture yet again’
• Positivity rate jumps to 8.2%
• Superspreader in Mokokchung

Morung Express News
Dimapur | July 17

Coinciding with the loosening of restrictions, the COVID-19 graph in Nagaland made an upsurge after maintaining a downward curve since May-end.  

Nagaland clocked 689 cases during the week (July 10-16), 41 percent more than the previous week’s 405 cases. The weekly tally included 328 random/self test, 286 traced contacts, 31 security forces personnel, 28 travellers and 16 frontline workers. 

Further, the surge coincided with detection outnumbering recoveries for the first time in 7 weeks— 558 recoveries against 689 fresh cases. It was 405 cases against 690 recoveries the previous week.

The state Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme’s (IDSP) weekly COVID roundup released on July 17, noted, “The state remains yet again at an overly critical juncture.”

The high case-count was marked by a sharp increase in Kohima (300 cases, 226 recoveries). Only 3 districts recorded higher recoveries than fresh cases— Mon (30 recoveries, 16 cases), Phek (13 cases, 32 recoveries), Peren (9 cases, 27 recoveries). In Wokha, there was nil recovery against 14 cases. 

The death toll for the week increased 12, while the case fatality ratio remained at 1.9 percent. 

A superspreader event in Mokokchung was another major update from the week. As per the IDSP, 24 out of 46 contacts were tested positive after attending a funeral with a positivity rate of 57 percent. 

Warning signs: The sample positivity rate resurged after dropping for two weeks, increasing to 8.2 percent from 5.7 percent last week. The report from four districts, in particular, was alarming with Kohima returning 22 percent positivity, Mokokchung- 17 percent, Longleng- 11 percent and Kiphire- 12 percent. 

A positivity rate of less than 5 percent is the requirement recommended by the WHO for reopening, while only five districts— Dimapur, Tuensang, Phek, Mon and Peren, had positivity rate below this threshold. 

The IDSP added, “Out of 41 districts with more than 10 percent sample positivity rate in the country, 31 are from the Northeastern states with 9 from Manipur.”

Meanwhile, hospital admissions of COVID cases have not shown any downtrend, remaining relatively constant for the last 5 weeks. “There were 79 admissions to COVID-19 hospitals in the past week.”

The high positivity rate was not helped by the low testing rate as Nagaland continues to remain among the states with the lowest testing rates in the country. As on July 16, Nagaland was testing at the rate of 113 per thousand population. 

Sikkim, the state with the highest positivity ratio of 20.1 percent in the country was testing at 268 per thousand population.  

Further, even as the government directed the resumption of classes for higher secondary and above, it reminded that as many as 2,090 students have tested positive this year. With classes set to resume, the IDSP strongly recommended “Classroom routines redesigned to limit student interaction inside and outside the rooms” matched by universal masking, hand hygiene and adequate ventilation. While stating that vaccination of teachers, non-teaching staff and eligible students should be prioritized, it recommended “high level of testing and contact tracing within schools.” 

Vaccine: The vaccine coverage was at 6.6 lakh doses, inclusive of 1,14,551 people, who have received the second shot. While informing that 44 percent of the eligible 18-plus population has received at least one dose, the IDSP reminded that more than 70 percent of the population “is still susceptible to COVID-19 infection and vaccination needs to be ramped up urgently along with strict maintenance of COVID-19 appropriate behaviors.”