The unprecedented financial maelstrom today in India has taken a good beating on our fragile economy growth 6.5% reduces to 5.5%. GDP if the former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh statement is to be taken with a pint of salt who is an economist himself, where billion of man-hour lost in the gambit along with hundred souls in the melee gone unaccounted. Look, unlike developed countries, hard currency circulation in the biggest democratic country India is the highest with 80% in term of lakhs-crore rupees daily transaction in this vast country can never be overcome with the mantra of e-transaction within a fortnight but despite of the blitzkrieg protests from various section of the society and the national and regional political parties , the Prime Minister had not been daunted the least which I’m afraid economy emergency or civil warlike looting financial institution cannot be overlooked as per the prevailing development in the country today.
More so, the greater irony is that, the project of recalling the banned notes will cost Rs. 1.28 lakh crores rupees to the national exchequer according to the news reports whereas, the expected return may not yield up to this amount explain itself of misadventure.
Which in other word, the terminology “ACHE DIN” (Good day) turned out to be the darkest day tolling the death knell where, the rest of the world is giggling under their colors and the worse scenario is awaiting if preemption measure is not adopted posthaste by the Prime Minister himself as seen today, people started burning the banned currencies in desperation, what next could be burning the country for the worse.
No wonder, the current calamities that engulfed the country is yes, the main issue is; 1, will the project root out the black money? As cited by the hon’ble Prime Minister of India. 2. Will the project clampdown on fake and counterfeit currency market? From within and outside the country. 3. Will the project rejuvenate the country’s spiraling inflation? 4. Will the project stop the un-reined corruption in all levels? 5. Can the project make e-transaction for 1.25 billion populations within a short notice? If your answer is “yes” to these five points, you’re perfectly no less in the shoe of our hon’ble Prime Minister and accountable as well for all the worse to come.
Similarly, the above context may be concretized plainly as;
1. Rooting out black money: The universal phenomena has it that many countries are effected by black money who siphoning off and diverting untaxed money to save haven countries or illegally hoarding bulk currencies at the interest of the syndicates through various method of criminalities by various criminals and their agents but the methods adopted by other developed countries are mostly citizen friendly to punish the culprits as per the prevailing laws. Whereas, in the case of India it’s a vice versa where, the common men suffered and the syndicate hawalla account holders exploits all the loopholes and go scot-free at the end they will just resurface with more vigor impunity. Besides that, this project has given them the chance to convert their unaccounted black money into white through the various loopholes.
2. Clamping down on counterfeit/fake money: Here too no country is free from counterfeit money despite of the harshest punishment meted out to the extent of capital punishment. So also in the case of India those counterfeiters in and outside the country are far advance and they have the resource and in today’s electronic-digital world they are highly capable of reproducing genuinely with all the security marks intact where, even the most sophisticated computer machines failed to detect the fake from genuine one’s. So also those fake currencies finding its way into the various national banks too speaks volume of conniving with corrupted banking officers. Therefore, demonetization of Rs.500/- and Rs.1000/- can be considered as short-term relief that acts like painkiller to lull the pain temporarily.
3. Inflation: Inflation is relevantly related to equation of equilibrium between demand and supply and the demonetization of certain denomination will not help in any manner rather the situation of inflation can push up as seen today where many perishable agro products are rotting in various stock as no buyer come forward due to non availability of hard cash in hand.
4. Corruption: The menace of corruption is as old as human history and this is all about greed’s state of mind where, moral probity had to be imbibed through self discipline rather than external force of regimental rules, invariably demonetization has no role in it directly or indirectly.
5. E-transaction: It is like; “Yah! I have a good dream last night and that sweet-dream must fulfill today” what a fantastic idea but can’t we be more rational than jumping into conclusion into the endless chasm. Look! India with a population of 1.25 billion comprising of 0.80 billion rural folk most of who doesn’t even have their banking account and entirely depending on hard-cash in hand. Forget about Smartphone for e-transaction when they cannot differentiate the phone from head to tail where the subsidy scheme will just go wasted. Yes, if we stick to this idea of e-transaction mandatory through credit card/phone the economy of India is just on the verge of rolling down the steepest cliff of national emergency.
6. Virtue: The demonetization project cannot be entirely projected negatively, it has the potentiality and viability to tighten black money, counterfeit fake money only had there been proper planning in the first place. This is because 87% of the money circulation is dominated by the high value notes Rs.500/- and Rs.1000/- where Rs.10,20,50/-and Rs.100 accounted for only 13% as per the financial reports, whereas, to replace the required astronomical figure of 22 billion notes will take not less than four to five month to print out and another one month to streamline in disbursements to the entire vast country. What will happen during this period is anybody guess.
The demonetization project has the vast potential to bring about cashless transaction called e-transaction provided that proper scheme for imparting financial literacy programs is put into ordinance and implemented in the first place which may take not less than two to three year for this underdeveloped country. Besides that through systematic monitoring, black money and counterfeit money can be contained to some extent and this is what other developed countries are doing that we need to learn.
A big yes, had there been proper preparation in the first place and if so this magnitude of turmoil would not have had happen where the Hon’ble Prime Minister will be gleefully riding home with the mandate of 1.25 billion people of the country.
Please take note that the writer of this article is not inclined to any political party nor any social organization but purely self opinionating on the vice and virtue of demonetization and its impact on the national economy.
N. Haisoyi Ndang
Author & Founder Naga Script, Kohima
