Bad reports for 'COVID Winter'

Witoubou Newmai

It is far from reassuring regarding the coming ‘COVID winter’ as several reports do not give us reasons to feel fine. The reports say the number of COVID-19 cases will rise during this winter.

“SARS Cov 2 is a respiratory virus and the transmission of respiratory viruses is known to increase during the colder weather. Respiratory viruses thrive better in cold weather and low humidity conditions. There is another fact that needs to be kept in mind. During winter, there is a tendency of overcrowding in residential dwellings which may increase transmission... So in Indian context, it would not be wrong to assume that the winter season may see an increase in the number of cases,” Hindustan Times reported quoting Union Health minister Harsh Vardhan.

In another report, the national daily citing the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) on specifically taking the situation of Delhi, said that the city “is likely to report around 15,000 COVID-19 cases daily in winter.” NCDC further said, “Winter months that make respiratory illnesses severer...Patients may come from outside Delhi in large numbers… Patients coming from distant areas are likely to be more serious. In addition, with festival-related gatherings, there could be a sudden rise in cases. Therefore, it is recommended that Delhi should prepare for a daily surge of approximately 15,000 positive cases and make arrangements for inpatient admissions of patients with moderate and severe disease roughly amounting to 20% of this surge”.

The above reports have two aspects: one is based on nature (science) and the other is purely to do with human activities during “festive season.”

Whatever is the situation, the fear now is: all the reports lean towards ‘fear.” But again, there is an apparent cavalier shrug of the people, even as the COVID-19 situation worsens with every passing day. We have been asking all this time as to why there is a corresponding proclivity of people to be complacent or appear to be so with the rising cases of the disease compared to what the people were when there was no or a minuscule account of the disease?

This writer had advanced some arguments in this very editorial space a couple of months ago on the probable answers to the above question. Optimism bias, familiarity, urgency, compulsion, insensitivity, etc., etc. can be the probable reasons for the complacency of people. However, these are still opinions (and not confirmed or grounded information). However, opinions also matter but it is always the fuller study that matters more to see opinions mature.

As a way of reasoning, we need to piece so many aspects together for larger commentaries as to why there is a certain degree of complacency or the apparent complacency of people as situations get tougher with time. This is solely to open eyes to realities.