Dr Maongsangba
Bihar has set a record in electoral history of being the only state in India that will go to the polls twice in the same year. The election that was held in Feb 2005 halted the Lalu juggernaut and threw up a hung assembly and thereafter triggered a chain of political drama following the fractured mandate. Lalu and its allies was short of 35 seats of the halfway marked of 122, the NDA with 92 seats in its kitty tried to rope in Paswan to help cobbled a JD-U led-Government that was missed by a whisker. Paswan with 29 MLA, the potential kingmaker stuck to the gun of not aligning with communal BJP or castiest RJD. He favored presidents Rule to clear the garbage piled up during 15 years of Rabri-Lalu’s Raj. However, notwithstanding Paswan much touted bravado; he became the butt of ridicule from the secular forces and accused him of being hand in gloves with the communal forces.
Since no political formation was in a position to form a government in the wake of the Feb 2005 polls, the House was kept under suspended animation. After a series of political drama, President’s Rule was imposed and the assembly was prematurely dissolved in May 2005. This was followed by controversial President’s rule. Buta Singh, the former union home Minister and the incumbent Governor who reportedly act on the aid and advice of the RJD supremo created quite a flutter demeaning the constitutional position of a Governor. His reported tiff with Chief Secretary who is also his advisor and his letter to the Rail Mantri seeking favor for two senior Railway officials had stirred a hornet nest in political circles.
In the coming Oct- Nov 2005 election, the three Bihar stalwarts that will lock horns against each other are the same actors as was in the previous elections. Bihar is turning out to be the real jigsaw puzzle in the big fight for the next assembly election. Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal-U, a former Minister in the NDA regime backed by Bharatiya Janata Party is all out to give the truncated UPA a run for its money. Ram Vilas Paswan of LJP, a constituent of UPA, who entered the Guinness book of records for winning from Hajipur parliamentary constituency in the 1980s with a record margin is toying with the idea of heading a third Front. He paid the price for not supporting the JD-U led combination nor RJD- led secular forces in the post Feb 2005 polls, which led to the exodus of his majority of MLA’s to join the bandwagon JD-U. He now seems to be playing to the Muslim gallery. The third key player is Lalo Prasad Yadav RJD Chief, the de-facto ruler of Bihar for 15 years and the current Railway Minister in the UPA government. This rustic former president of Patna University Students’ union, popularity rating is not confined to Bihar alone, it transcends the national border.
Interestingly all the three key players in Bihar politics are former comrade- in- arms and Diaspora of Janata Parivar of 1970s and incidentally all held the key portfolio of Railways under different regime at the centre. These three former socialists are grappling to outsmart each other and slugging it out for the top job with high stake for each of them. Nitish Kumar is desperately vying himself for Chief Minister’s “Gaddi “ with the blessings of the Sangh Parivar to put an end to what is known as in their parlance “The fascist regime of Rabri-Lalu Raj & Buta-Lalu axis.” Having failed to form the government in the previous assembly, the NDA is all set to upset the apple cart of the fragmented UPA.
RJD Chief Lalu’s one point agenda is to propel his wife Rabri Devi to the throne in the interest of the poor, backward and the downtrodden. Ram Vilas Paswan is rooting to install a Muslim Chief Minister in order to counter the threat posed by Rabri Devi. His insistence on a Muslim chief Minister drew flak from both the Congress and the BJP. The Congress does not see any merit in projecting a Muslim chief Minister and the BJP leadership had accused Paswan of trying to become anotherJinnah and trying to spread the poison of communalism.
This no- hold-barred triangular contest has set the tongues wagging and no alliance is in the driver’s seat and emerged as a clear winner as of now. The three former comrades had taken some of the wind out of Congress and BJP sail, the two largest political parties in the country firmament. The Congress is cooling its heels playing second -fiddle to maverick Lalu of RJD and the BJP to Janata Dal-U in Bihar indicating a paradigm shift in the nature of Indian party system. The Congress, which has a big brotherly attitude at Delhi over its allies, cannot bulldoze its way in Bihar as the support base of the party has eroded and the party has almost become a non-entity in the state.
The Election Commission announced a four-phase polling from October 18 to November 19 amid protest from political parties including Congress and RJD in view of the Ramzan and Dussehra. This four-phase polling was called for keeping in view the availability of central para military forces, law and order situation including problems posed by the Naxalites.
Lalu who is known for his caustic humor, kicked off his election campaign formally on Sept 12 by taking up cudgels against the BJP-led NDA and his co- partners in the UPA, Ram Vilas Paswan of Lok Jansakti party. He asked his voters to forgive him for his past mistakes and urged the people to give him one more chance to save the state from going into the clutches of communal and fascist forces and projected himself as the messiah of the poor, the backward and minorities. From the look of the things in Bihar, the UPA that comprises of Congress, NCP, RJD, LJP, CPI, CPI (M) are pulling in different directions. It appears that United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is neither united nor progressive and months of endless parleys and reconciliation bid had failed to put in place a semblance of an alliance. This is music to the ears of the Sangh Parivar. However, the emergence of fissures in the BJP camp between the “Big Two” and the second-rung of leadership provided the much-needed respite to the UPA alliances.
If you look at the Feb 2005, election, the contest was among three broad alliances. The RJD- left parties, The Congress- LJP and the Janata Dal-U- BJP. But in practice, there was no agreement between CPI and RJD and the Congress went on to flirt with Lalu, despite its avowed penchant for LJP. In constituency where there was no agreement on seat sharing it was free- for- all in the name of friendly contest. The alliance and seat- sharing conundrum had carried over to Oct-Nov elections 2005. Digvijay Singh, the Congress General Secretary and troubleshooter in Bihar categorically told Paswan to join RJD-led UPA in the coming elections. He made veiled warning to LJP supremo Paswan, that his insistence on a Muslim chief Minister would only benefit the NDA in the coming poll.
On the other hand, the LJP chief underscoring the need to get rid of Lalu misrule had asked the UPA allies and the Congress in particular not to have any truck with Lalu and to snap ties with RJD. Paswan said, “ Any body who will sail in the leaking boat of Lalu is bound to sink” This was in response to Lulu’s request to Paswan to sail in the UPA Boat. Paswan vowed to join forces with his Bete noire, the day Lalu agrees to make a Muslim as the Chief Minister of Bihar. In this game of one-upmanship a sizable section of the left has thrown in its lot with Paswan against the RJD chief. CPI had warned Congress that if it does not align with LJP the consequences would be serious. The CPI, the RSP and the Forward Bloc has settled for Paswan’s LJP. Some CPI (M) think tank is rooting for a secular formation around RJD and Congress.
But Brinda Karat CPI (M) politburo member and newly elected Rajya Sabha MP said that it will have no truck with the congress in Bihar and would maintain equi-distance with both Congress and BJP. Her hubby Prakash Karat CPI (M) general Secretary reiterated that the party had decided to rally around Lalu in order to keep communal forces at bay but it would not form part of RJD-Congress alliance. All left parties barring CPI (M) are with Paswan. This is a clear indication that Congress is a pariah in the left scheme of things at least in Bihar. The unshakable left Front unity has crumbled over temperamental and acerbic tongue, Lalu in Bihar.
However, the NCP chief Sharad Pawar stressed the need to bring about a rapprochement between Lalu and Paswan and entrusted Tariq Anwar and Praful Patil to liaison with Paswan and Lalu and to broker peace. However, Paswan-Lalu schism has reached a point of no return that may spell trouble for the beleaguered UPA at the centre. The Janata Dal-U -BJP alliance appears to be well place and strong at least in theory in the run up to the Oct-Nov poll 2005.
Now it is clear that, there will be three broad alliances. The JD-U- BJP tie up is a foregone conclusion. The ruling UPA line up is likely to be RJD, Congress, NCP, and CPI (M) at the end of the day. And in all probability the third front may comprise of the LJP, CPI, RSP, and Forward Bloc and others. The Samajwati Party headed by Mulayam Singh and Mayawati BSP, who consider herself, as the living goddess will be in the fray on their own. Who joins which alliance is more or less clear, but the acid test for all the alliances is the riddle of seat sharing among the alliance partner in the caste-ridden state.
Should the so-called RJD led- Secular combination manage to get a majority, the axe may fall on the recalcitrant LJP Supremo. If Paswan secures a respectable tally of seats in the 243 assembly seats, he will still be a force to reckon in Bihar politics. But if it is a fractured mandate, the focus will again shift to the controversial Governor who has been in the eye of storm of late. Even as jockeying for alliances and power politics intensifies the possibility of another round of violent election in the hotbed of caste- politics- Bihar cannot be ruled out.
(The writer is a Senior Lecturer Dept of political science, Fazl Ali college, Mokokchung)
