Monalisa Tase & Dr Monojit Das
As the opening months of 2026 unfold, the international strategic landscape is being reshaped by seismic political transitions, technological leadership contests, and complex security dynamics across regions. South Asia’s largest democratic exercise in Bangladesh has yielded a historic transfer of power; India’s hosting of the India AI Impact Summit 2026 has projected new technological ambitions; and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel underscores the delicate balance New Delhi must maintain amid enduring Middle East tensions. These developments occur against the backdrop of persistent global volatility, from Russia–Ukraine dynamics to tensions in West Asia with India increasingly positioned as both a regional stabiliser and a Global South diplomatic actor.
Bangladesh’s Political Transformation: A New Chapter in South Asian Democracy
The 2026 Bangladeshi general election, held on 12 February, marked one of the most consequential political shifts in Dhaka’s recent history. In an electoral process that followed the 2024 uprising and the banning of the erstwhile dominant Awami League, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, secured a commanding victory with a two-thirds majority in the Jatiya Sangsad.
Rahman’s ascent from exile to the premiership ends nearly two decades of Awami League dominance and signals a generational reset in Bangladesh’s political calculus. Alongside the general election, a constitutional referendum passed with significant public support, mandating reforms aimed at rebalancing state institutions a development that is politically binding and underscores the electorate’s appetite for deeper governance change.
Rahman’s government now confronts immediate economic and governance challenges. Inflationary pressures, unemployment, especially among youth, with rising demands for institutional reform across justice, accountability, and regulatory frameworks will define Dhaka’s first year in office. Relations with India will be a central feature of this trajectory: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s congratulatory message to Rahman emphasized India’s desire for a “democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh”, reflecting New Delhi’s intent to maintain robust bilateral ties even as political dynamics evolve. While the election was largely peaceful and deemed credible by many observers, the absence of the Awami League, whose bases have begun to spearhead at local levels, suggests potential future contention. Bangladesh’s transformation will thus require careful political management, with implications for regional security, migration, trade, and infrastructure cooperation across South Asia.
India AI Impact Summit 2026: New Delhi’s Technological Diplomacy
India’s diplomatic standing received a further boost with the successful conclusion of the India AI Impact Summit 2026, held from 16 to 20 February in New Delhi. The summit, the first of its scale hosted by a Global South nation, brought together more than 500 global delegates, including heads of state, tech CEOs, government ministers, and international researchers, to deliberate on the future of artificial intelligence. The event culminated in the adoption of the New Delhi Declaration on AI Impact, endorsed by 89 countries, representing a collective global commitment to inclusive, responsible, and equitable AI development. Participating nations, including Australia, France, Germany, the USA, China, Israel, and Bangladesh highlighted that AI should advance economic growth, social empowerment, and safe innovation for humanity at large.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated India’s MANAV vision for AI, which is anchored in principles of morality, accountability, national sovereignty, accessibility, and legitimacy. He stressed that AI should remain “human-centric” and an instrument of empowerment rather than exploitation, particularly for the Global South. Modi further outlined India’s trajectory in building a resilient tech ecosystem capable of advancing frontier domains such as data centres, semiconductors, and multilingual AI frameworks. Beyond lofty frameworks, the summit also catalysed tangible investment commitments exceeding US $200 billion, with contributions from major Indian conglomerates and global technology firms, positioning India at the centre of emerging AI value chains.
The summit also highlighted opportunities to improve state capacity and the government’s ability to conceptualise, coordinate, and execute to address the challenges of an event of that scale. Despite bottlenecks, India’s hosting of the summit and the resulting global consensus on AI ethics and governance reflect a moment of technological leadership that could shape norms and policies in the years to come
Modi’s Israel Visit: Strategic Diplomacy in a Regional Flashpoint
Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi completed a state visit to Israel from February 25 to 26, 2026, at the invitation of Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel. This diplomatic meeting witnessed a significant shift in India’s foreign policy, amidst rising and complex geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. India aimed to maintain a balanced stance, advocating for peace and a two-state solution while strengthening bilateral cooperation with Israel on security, innovation, trade, cybersecurity, quantum technology, and integration of digital payments.
Modi’s visit reinforces counter-terrorism collaboration, enhances defence and technological partnerships, and positions India as an independent stakeholder in West Asian geopolitics, one that engages multiple actors without being drawn into zero-sum rivalries. As India navigates regional uncertainty, maintaining diplomatic balance will be pivotal for its broader strategic interests.
The Board of Peace: A New Multilateral Experiment Amid West Asian Volatility
The timing of the Board’s launch has been overtaken by one of the most destabilising shocks to the West Asian strategic environment in decades: the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a reported joint United States–Israeli military operation that also killed several senior Iranian officials. State media in Tehran has confirmed Khamenei’s death and declared a period of national mourning, while Iranian authorities have condemned the strike as an act of terrorism and vowed reprisals. The killing has triggered immediate and intense military exchanges across the region, including Iranian missile and drone strikes against Israeli and US targets, retaliatory counter-strikes, and heightened security alerts from the Gulf to Lebanon. These developments have raised serious concerns about the possibility of a wider regional confrontation.
In this sharply escalated conflict environment, the Board of Peace, originally conceived to coordinate post-conflict stabilisation and reconstruction in Gaza, now confronts a far more uncertain and combustible strategic landscape. Its initial focus on economic recovery and humanitarian coordination risks being overshadowed by an acute crisis of leadership in Iran, rapid military escalation, and the reconfiguration of deterrence dynamics across West Asia. The Board’s future relevance will depend on whether it can recalibrate its mandate in light of unfolding hostilities, secure broader regional acceptance, and function in alignment with established multilateral mechanisms rather than in isolation. Without credible de-escalation pathways, inclusive diplomatic engagement, and a renewed political settlement framework, the initiative risks being overtaken by events beyond its original design.
Challenges and Road Ahead for India
For India, the path forward is clearly complex. Domestically, building on the progress made through its recent AI diplomacy, especially after successfully hosting the India AI Impact Summit, will require ongoing investment in education, semiconductor ecosystems, data infrastructure, clear regulations, and strong ethical safeguards. The challenge goes beyond just adopting technology; it is about ensuring that AI-powered growth results in fair social outcomes, job creation, digital inclusion, and improved public service delivery. Bridging the digital divide and establishing accountability frameworks will determine whether India’s technological leadership develops into a lasting strategic advantage.
Regionally, India must continue managing its neighbourhood with calibrated diplomacy. Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape, following its recent electoral transition, presents both opportunity and complexity. Enhanced cooperation in trade corridors, energy grids, river-water management, and cross-border connectivity can reinforce regional stability. At the same time, New Delhi must remain sensitive to domestic political recalibrations in Dhaka, ensuring that engagement is anchored in mutual respect and long-term institutional partnerships rather than personality-driven equations.
In West Asia, India’s strategic balancing act has entered an even more precarious phase. The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States have fundamentally altered the region’s security calculus. What was already a fragile environment marked by tensions along the Israeli-Iranian axis and unstable ceasefire dynamics in Gaza has now evolved into a moment of structural uncertainty, with risks of wider interstate confrontation and proxy mobilisation across multiple theatres. The sudden leadership vacuum in Tehran and the possibility of retaliatory escalation introduce new variables that complicate diplomatic predictability.
The recent launch of the Board of Peace, an emerging multilateral mechanism aimed at coordinating Gaza reconstruction and stabilisation, now unfolds against this dramatically heightened backdrop.
India’s participation in the inaugural meeting in an observer capacity reflects a deliberate and calibrated approach: engaging evolving diplomatic frameworks while preserving its long-standing support for UN-led processes and a negotiated two-state solution. However, as regional alignments shift and deterrence equations are recalibrated, New Delhi will need to carefully assess how such parallel initiatives intersect with broader regional stability, energy security concerns, and the safety of the Indian diaspora across the Gulf. Strengthening strategic ties with Israel, while sustaining constructive engagement with Arab partners and managing historically significant relations with Iran, will require heightened diplomatic agility in an increasingly polarised and volatile West Asian order.
Finally, as India amplifies its voice in global arenas, whether in AI governance, climate action frameworks, supply-chain resilience, or emerging multilateral institutions, it must build resilient and inclusive global norms. Navigating these shifts will require India to act not only as a participant but as a bridge-builder, harmonising innovation, sovereignty, and multilateral legitimacy. As India navigates regional uncertainty, maintaining diplomatic balance will be pivotal for its broader strategic interests. Leading initiatives that foster inclusion, transparency, and shared technological empowerment will be central to India’s strategic identity as a convenor of the Global South and a responsible, stabilising global power.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University.
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News).
