Witoubou Newmai
To what extent will the deeply polarized situation in Manipur reflect upon the upcoming assembly polls?
A conventional take would suggest that the developments witnessed in the past two months in Manipur State is bound to influence the voting pattern there when the State goes to polls on March 4 and 8. It is a matter of fact that the dying Ibobi Singh government has found energy and other needed resources from the issues that have arisen from creation of the new districts. The cock-eyed perception and hype round the ‘economic blockade’ and its impact, while not willing to tread farther to ask why the Nagas have to resort to such form of agitation, is indeed a juicy treat for Ibobi Singh and his party.
Until two months ago, there was a forlorn feeling sinking into every Congress leader as partymen were deserting them for the BJP on a daily basis. However, the district creation issue that triggered intense agitation of the Nagas has refreshed the political scenario.
Today, Ibobi Singh and his men are more enthusiastic than anyone else to face the polls. Two days ago, Ibobi Singh herded his men to New Delhi to impress upon the Election Commission of India (ECI) not to postpone the polls. There is no clearer indication than this of how the Manipur CM’s strategy has worked.
Poll related analyses of Manipur cannot afford to ignore the fact that peculiarities and odd situations are not anomalies in Manipur State. By citing a placid voting pattern witnessed in the past three legislative assembly elections one finds a sort of strangeness in Manipur.
Voting manner of the past 15 years in Manipur shows that turbulent situations triggered by ethnic issues, both in the hills and in the valley, seldom affect the electorate even though undeterred politicians continue to encourage voters to fear.
Tension between the Meiteis and the Nagas in the year 2001 triggered by the “without territorial limit” declaration of NSCN (IM)-Government of India (BJP led NDA) ceasefire failed to reflect in the assembly election of 2002. Out of 11 Naga dominated assembly constituencies the BJP could pocket only two seats, that too after immense pressure on the voters from certain quarters to boycott the Congress party and favour the saffron outfit. The verdict was almost the reverse to what was predicted. The valley districts fared even worse.
Riding on the popular Manipur territorial integrity slogan wave emanated from the June 18, 2001 flare up, some Meitei ‘hardliners’ sternly opposing the NSCN (IM) ceasefire extension in Manipur floated a political party christened as Democratic Revolutionary Peoples’ Party or DRPP (the term ‘revolutionary’ was deleted few months later) hoping to capitalize the people’s sentiment in the 2002 assembly polls. However, it could manage to pocket only two seats. There are 40 assembly constituencies in the valley. Shortly later, the two DPP legislators joined the Congress party.
In the hills too, when Th. Muivah wanted to visit his native village in Ukhrul there was heightened communal tension in Manipur when the Ibobi Singh government barred him from stepping into 'Manipur soil'. The simmering atmosphere was again fueled to the next level with the all out investment of resources by the Ibobi Singh government to prevent the expansion of the Naga People’s Front (NPF) to Manipur in the year 2011. It was a foregone conclusion for many political pundits that the Cock party would sweep the polls in Naga bastion in Manipur in the 2012 assembly polls with the hurt Nagas going against the Ibobi government. Again, it was the reverse of the popular calculation. Out of 11 seats in the ‘Naga areas,’ NPF could clinch only four.
Again in the valley, similar voting pattern was witnessed. The Irom Sharmila fasting issue and the extrajudicial killings of Thangjam Manorama Devi and Sanjit have been the reasons for the anti AFSPA campaign in the valley in the past 15 years, with the public calling the Ibobi Singh government as too weak, insipid and unfit to be called a people’s government. But during elections, the same people voted the Ibobi Singh government to power for three consecutive terms.
These developments suggest that for ordinary voters who are constantly disturbed by the thought of medical fees, job security, education of their children, a decent meal and other basic facilities, money becomes the immediate balm to soothe their headaches.
