Monalisa Tase and Monojit Das
I. The Rise of a New Geopolitical Framework: Towards NAM 2.0?
The evolving global power structure has seen a significant shift, with Western nations reassessing their strategic alignments due to changing political dynamics in the United States. The formation of a new diplomatic coalition by European nations—distinct from NATO and the EU—is a direct response to Washington’s increasingly pro-Russia stance under President Donald Trump. This recalibration has created an emerging anti-US, anti-Russia, and anti-China grouping, bringing together European powers and Ukraine.
India finds itself at a crucial juncture in this unfolding scenario. Traditionally, India has balanced its relations between the West, Russia, and the Global South. However, with the US now engaging in direct talks with Russia and reducing its military and diplomatic commitments to Ukraine, India must reassess its strategic posture.
The question arises: Should Prime Minister Narendra Modi revive the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in a modern avatar—NAM 2.0? A renewed NAM could serve as a platform for middle powers like India, Brazil, and ASEAN nations to assert their strategic autonomy while navigating the uncertainties of the current geopolitical landscape. By leading this initiative, India could enhance its global influence and provide a counterweight to the power blocs forming in the West and Eurasia.
II. Pakistan-Russia Anti-Terrorism Cooperation: A New Challenge for India?
On February 25, 2025, Pakistan and Russia activated their bilateral anti-terrorism dialogue, following discussions between Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Russian Ambassador Albert P. Khorev. This development marks a new dimension in Pakistan’s foreign policy, as it seeks to strengthen ties with Moscow while balancing its historical dependence on China and the US.
For India, this growing partnership presents both risks and opportunities. While counterterrorism cooperation between Pakistan and Russia could curb transnational terrorism, there are concerns that Pakistan may leverage this alliance to secure Russian military technology and diplomatic support against India. New Delhi must closely monitor this evolving relationship and strengthen its own strategic ties with Moscow to prevent a realignment that could undermine its regional security.
III. US-Russia Convergence: The Diplomatic Realignment and Its Impact on India
For the first time since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the United States has voted alongside Russia at the UN, opposing a Ukraine-led resolution that sought to condemn Russian aggression. This unprecedented move highlights a strategic shift in US foreign policy, which indicates a break from European allies who remain staunchly opposed to Moscow.
India’s decision to abstain from the resolution aligns with its longstanding neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. However, this shift in US policy presents an opportunity for India to strengthen its partnerships with both Washington and Moscow. With the US increasingly focusing on internal issues and reassessing its global commitments, India can position itself as a key mediator between the two powers, leveraging its historical ties with Russia and its growing strategic partnership with the US.
India must also address existing hurdles in its relationships with both nations to capitalize on emerging opportunities. By advocating for multipolarity and engaging in diplomatic dialogues, India can ensure that its national interests are safeguarded amid shifting global alignments.
IV. Security Threats from Bangladesh: Rising ISI Influence and Cross-Border Concerns
Recent intelligence reports indicate that Indian security forces have intercepted suspicious wireless radio communications across the Bangladesh border. These transmissions, in Arabic, Urdu, and Bengali, have raised concerns about potential ISI-backed covert activities in the region, particularly in West Bengal.
With political instability in Bangladesh and rising anti-India sentiment, India faces growing security threats, including the radicalization of Rohingya refugees and potential terrorist infiltration. The involvement of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in these activities suggests an effort to destabilize India’s eastern borders.
The timing of these developments is significant given the growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh following recent political upheavals. The possibility of Bangladesh denying extradition requests, including that of exiled Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, could complicate Indo-Bangladeshi relations further. To counter these threats, India must enhance border surveillance, strengthen counterintelligence capabilities along the Bangladesh border and the highest form of cordial diplomacy is the need of the hour to address border fencing concerns.
Diplomatic engagements with Dhaka will also be crucial to mitigate tensions and prevent escalation ensuring Bangladesh does not become a breeding ground for anti-India elements.
V. The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals: Russia’s Offer to the US and India’s Role
Russia has extended an offer to the United States for the sale of rare earth minerals, marking a strategic shift in global resource politics. While Russia continues to develop its own mineral reserves, the US-Ukraine agreement on critical minerals adds another layer to the complex geopolitical contest for resource security.
For India, the global competition for rare earth minerals presents both challenges and opportunities. India has significant untapped reserves and has been working on diversifying its supply chains to reduce dependence on China. With the US and Russia engaging in mineral trade, India must leverage its diplomatic channels to secure favourable agreements that enhance its strategic autonomy in critical sectors like defence, technology, and clean energy.
Additionally, India must explore partnerships with nations such as Australia and Japan to strengthen its rare earth mineral supply chains. By positioning itself as a key player in the global resource economy, India can mitigate vulnerabilities and enhance its economic resilience.
VI. Mongolia-China Railway Agreement: India’s Trade Corridor Imperatives
After 17 years of negotiations, Mongolia and China have reached an agreement to construct a railway linking the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposits with the Gashuun Sukhait border crossing. This dual-gauge railway will significantly enhance Chinese trade routes, further integrating Mongolia into Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
For India, this development highlights the urgent need to expedite its own trade corridor projects, particularly the Chabahar port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Strengthening these corridors will enhance India’s connectivity with Central Asia and Europe, providing a viable alternative to Chinese-dominated trade routes. Given the dynamic geopolitical environment, prioritizing these initiatives is crucial for India’s long-term economic and strategic interests.
Conclusion: India’s Path Forward in a Fractured World Order
February 2025 has seen significant geopolitical shifts, from Pakistan-Russia counterterrorism cooperation to the emergence of new global alignments. The evolving U.S.-Russia dynamic, increased security concerns along India’s eastern borders, and strategic mineral supply negotiations underscore the complexity of India’s foreign policy challenges. In this rapidly changing landscape, as the world transitions into a new geopolitical era, India must reinforce its strategic autonomy, recalibrate diplomatic engagements, and prioritize key trade corridors to safeguard its long-term national interests. The emergence of distinct power blocs, shifting alliances, and economic realignments necessitate a recalibration of India’s foreign policy. By reviving NAM 2.0, deepening strategic partnerships, and securing vital resources, India can navigate the evolving landscape while safeguarding its national interests.
India’s leadership in these uncertain times will be crucial in shaping the contours of the new world order.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland Universit.
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News).
