Monalisa Tase and Monojit Das
January 2026 opens with the international strategic landscape shaped not just by active conflicts and shifting alliances but by gestures of recognition and political returns that ripple beyond their immediate geographies. If December’s geopolitical currents were about rearranging old balances, January’s early cues suggest a world where strategic norms, sovereign legitimacy, and regional influence are being contested simultaneously. From South Asia to the Horn of Africa and the Gulf, states are wrestling with lost certainties and emerging realignments. For countries like India, this moment demands not only careful calibration of interests but also an assertive pursuit of stability through diplomatic grounding and strategic foresight.
Putin’s India Visit – Reinforcing the Indo-Russia Strategic Anchor
December 4–5, 2025: Russian President Vladimir Putin made a much-anticipated state visit to India for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit, his first since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. He held substantive talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Draupadi Murmu, underlining longstanding ties even as both capitals navigate pressure from Western powers and regional security shifts. The visit reaffirmed defence cooperation, energy ties, and high-technology partnerships. The timing, being late in the year and at a moment of heightened great-power competition, showed India’s commitment to maintaining a strategic balance with Russia, even as it deepens ties with Western partners. It also reflects Russia’s interest in preserving relationships beyond its immediate security firefight in Ukraine and expanding influence in Asia. Overall, this visit sets a pragmatic tone for India’s external engagement in the year ahead, stressing continuity over abrupt realignments.
Recognition of Somaliland - A Diplomatic Earthquake in the Horn of Africa
In late December 2025, Israel became the first country to formally recognise the breakaway Republic of Somaliland, a self-declared independent state that has long sought international legitimacy. The announcement was hailed in Hargeisa as a historic breakthrough but was strongly condemned by Somalia, the African Union, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and more than 20 predominantly Muslim nations as a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and international law. The issue even triggered emergency high-level discussions, including at the United Nations. This was not merely a diplomatic gesture but a geopolitical gambit. Somaliland sits astride the Gulf of Aden, a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Israel’s move is widely considered as part of a broader strategic effort, including the framework of Abraham Accords, to position and strengthen its role in Red Sea security dynamics and counter influence from Iran-aligned actors in the region. The backlash from Muslim and African states signals that this decision carries the risks of pushing regional alignment away from Western-leaning frameworks and could deepen fault lines along identity, territorial integrity and norms of state sovereignty. For global powers and regional actors alike, the fallout will shape Horn of Africa politics well into 2026.
Bangladesh’s Political Reset - Return of Tarique Rahman & Khaleda Zia’s Passing
Late December saw significant and emotionally charged developments in Bangladesh that will influence South Asian politics, Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), returned to Bangladesh after 17 years in exile, greeted by enthusiastic crowds and political momentum as the party pivots toward the 2026 polls. Shortly thereafter, Begum Khaleda Zia the country’s first female Prime Minister and chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), passed away at the age of 80 after a prolonged illness, prompting a three-day state mourning and reflections on her role in Bangladesh’s democratic evolution. From India, External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar visited Dhaka to represent India at the funeral, meeting Tarique Rahman and senior Bangladeshi officials, signalling India’s keen engagement and interest in political stability in its eastern neighbourhood. The return of Tarique Rahman, who has spent nearly two decades abroad, marks a decisive shift in Bangladeshi domestic politics. For India, maintaining balanced ties with a transitioning Dhaka government will be crucial, given shared borders, trade links, and security imperatives. India’s diplomatic engagement signals a desire to be seen as a partner in stability rather than partisan influence, a difficult but necessary line in evolving South Asia dynamics.
South Korea–China Diplomacy Reset - A New Axis of Regional Pragmatism?
South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung is scheduled to visit China from January 4–7, 2026, marking his first as visit since taking office. The agenda encompasses economic cooperation, supply chain stability, cultural exchange, and discussions on the potential resumption of dialogue with North Korea. This visit represents more than routine diplomacy; it is a deliberate attempt to reverse months of frayed bilateral relations and recalibrate Northeast Asian stability. South Korea finds itself between its security alliance with the U.S. and deep economic integration with China (China accounts for roughly one-fifth of its trade). In January, Seoul is signalling that it seeks multidimensional engagement, not zero-sum alignment. If successful, this diplomatic reset could shape trade norms, semiconductor supply chains, and even the prospects of peace dialogues on the Korean Peninsula in 2026.
Saudi–UAE Strategic Rift Deepens - A New Gulf Reality
Late December brought a striking development in Gulf geopolitics: Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes on Yemen’s port of Mukalla, targeting what it said was a UAE-linked weapons shipment to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC). Riyadh then demanded the exit of UAE forces from Yemen while the UAE announced it would withdraw its remaining counterterrorism units, marking a deep rupture between two once tightly aligned Gulf powers. The Saudi-UAE split reveals that intra-alliance fissures can be as strategically consequential as inter-state rivalries. Both are dominant oil producers and historically partners in regional security frameworks. Now, diverging visions, Riyadh’s emphasis on state unity in Yemen versus Abu Dhabi’s backing for southern autonomy have boiled over into open diplomatic and military confrontation. This has ramifications for OPEC cohesion, Yemen’s long-running conflict, and stability across the Red Sea and Gulf region. For India and other external stakeholders, this means recalibrating engagement with a more fragmented Gulf order where old certainties of cooperation cannot be taken for granted.
Conclusion: Strategic Imperatives for 2026
As January 2026 unfolds, the international system appears less driven by dramatic ruptures and more by cumulative shifts in legitimacy, alignment, and regional influence. The reverberations of President Putin’s visit to India underline the endurance of legacy partnerships even under global pressure, while the recognition of Somaliland exposes how selective legitimisation can destabilise fragile regional orders. Political transition in Bangladesh highlights the centrality of neighbourhood stability for India, demanding engagement that is steady, inclusive, and forward-looking. At the same time, South Korea’s recalibration with China illustrates how middle powers are seeking diplomatic flexibility rather than rigid alignment, and the growing Saudi–UAE rift reveals that even long-standing alliances are subject to internal strain. Together, these developments point to a world where certainty is scarce and strategic judgement matters more than doctrinal loyalty. For India, the task ahead is to remain anchored in its core interests while navigating this fluid landscape with restraint, credibility, and the confidence to act as a stabilising force rather than a reactive player.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University.
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News).
