Monalisa Tase and Dr Monojit Das
The world’s power structures are changing rapidly due to new technologies, economic policies, and political instability in different regions. Events like problems with submarine cables in the Baltic Sea, the seizure of a Russian ship by Finland, changes in U.S. immigration laws under Donald Trump, and progress on India’s Kaladan project are just a few examples of the complex challenges that leaders are dealing with right now.
This column will explore these events and their impact on both India and the world. It will also discuss important trips that India’s Prime Minister should make in 2025 to help move the country toward its goal of becoming a more developed and prosperous nation ("Vikshit Bharat")
Diplomatic Engagements for India: Key Global Destinations for Prime Minister Modi in 2025
In 2025, given the evolving geopolitical landscape, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomatic strategy should focus on enhancing India’s global footprint, particularly in regions where India’s influence and partnerships can be strengthened. Key countries for Modi to visit in 2025 would include Norway, Finland and Sweden. A visit to these nations would solidify India’s ties with the European Union and enhance cooperation on technological, energy, and security fronts, while also fostering collaboration in the Arctic region—a key focus area due to climate change and geopolitical rivalries. The timing of the visit can coincide with the United Nations internet governance forum or UN-IGF which is scheduled for late June 2025, an event that will provide an opportunity for Modi to discuss India’s role in global economic governance and technological advancements in the European context. In addition to the Nordic countries, Bulgaria and other non-Schengen states should be prioritized. These countries are strategically important for India, offering gateways to Central and Eastern Europe, regions where India seeks to expand its economic and trade relations. In Africa, India must strengthen ties with key nations like South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria, focusing on economic partnerships, technology sharing, and energy collaborations, which are essential for India’s expanding influence on the continent. Similarly, Modi’s visits to Latin America should target countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. These nations play a pivotal role in global trade, and strengthening relations with them would help India secure vital access to resources and markets, while also creating a united front for issues like climate change and sustainable development in multilateral forums.
Exploring the impact of world events on Indiaand global geopolitics.
1. Baltic Tensions: Submarine Cable Cuts and Finnish Seizures
The recent sabotage of submarine cables in the Baltic Sea and Finland’s seizure of theRussian vessel Eagle Shas reignited security concerns in Northern Europe. Theseevents highlight the vulnerability of critical undersea infrastructure in geopoliticallysensitive regions.
Cable Vulnerabilities as Strategic Threats
Submarine cables are the backbone of global internet and communication systems, carrying 95% of international data traffic. The Baltic Sea, a hub of such cables, has become a focal point for hybrid warfare. The disruptions not only impact communication but also demonstrate howundersea assets can be weaponized in a conflict scenario.
Finland’s decisive action in seizing Eagle S showcases its commitment to safeguarding regional security adhering to NATO membership commitment. As Europe diversifies energy and data routes away from Russia, these developments underscore the growing importance of NATO’s Baltic strategy.
India’s Lessons
India, with its extensive coastline and undersea cable infrastructure, must bolster its maritime surveillance capabilities. India also has a good opportunity of projecting itself as a knowledge and skill hub in the Indo Pacific Region. India must re-focuson the acoustic capacity and capability building with enhanced Under Water Domain Awareness (UDA) framework which will be a game changer for the Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative (IPOI). These initiatives could help address similar vulnerabilities in the Indian Ocean region
2. Trump’s Green Card Policy: A New Paradigm in Immigration
Donald Trump’s announcement to streamline green card pathways for foreign students completing two- or four-year programs in the U.S. represents a shift from his traditionally restrictive immigration stance. This policy aims to retain global talent, particularly in STEM fields, which are crucial for American competitiveness.
Impact on Global Talent Flows
The policy could create a brain drain in developing nations, particularly in South Asia. Countries like India, which already contribute the largest share of international students in the U.S., may face challenges in retaining their top talent.
India’s Strategic Response
India can counterbalance this potential loss by strengthening its higher education institutions and research ecosystems. Initiatives like GIFT City, STEM Education and Skill development, foster STEM Entrepreneurship, leverage the Indian diaspora and collaborations with globaluniversities could create competitive opportunities for Indian talent at home. The same can be applied at levels like bachelors (4year course) and PhD (4 year+ program).
India can also explore opportunities for joint course development, particularly in response to Trump's announcement regarding two-year degree students being eligible for a green card. By offering a two-year degree program in collaboration with partner institutions in the US, India can create dual degree programs that combine the strengths of both Indian and US universities.
3. Kaladan Project: A Renewed Opportunity Amid Arakan Conflicts
India’s long-stalled Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project could gain momentum as the United League of Arakan (ULA) signals openness to foreign investments in the Arakan region. This project, linking India’s northeast to Myanmar’s Rakhine State, is vital for enhancing regional connectivity and countering China’s growing influence in Myanmar.
Strategic Importance of the Kaladan Project
The project provides a critical link for India’s Act East Policy, improving access to Southeast Asian markets and reducing the northeastern states dependence on the Siliguri Corridor. Furthermore, it challenges China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by providing an alternative trade route in the region.
Navigating Arakan’s Political Dynamics
The ULA’s recent statement recognizing foreign investments could be a turning point. However, India must tread cautiously, balancing support for regional development with concerns about Myanmar’s internal conflicts. Engaging in dialogue with the ULA while coordinating with the Myanmar government could pave the way for a secure project implementation.
4. China’s Growing Influence in Myanmar
The Arakan Army’s collaboration with China in stabilizing Myanmar’s border areas and combating online criminal activities reflects Beijing’s active involvement in shaping Myanmar’s internal politics. Agreements like the ‘Haigeng Agreement’ between Chinese authorities and Myanmar insurgent groups reveal China’s nuanced approach to exerting regional influence.
Implications for India
While China consolidates its foothold in Myanmar, India must accelerate its regional initiatives like the Kaladan project and BIMSTEC. Strengthening ties with ASEAN nations will also be crucial to counterbalance China’s dominance.
5. Key Takeaways for Indian Policymakers
A. Safeguarding Maritime and Digital Infrastructure
The Baltic incidents underscore the need for India to secure its undersea cables andcoastal zones. Advanced surveillance technologies and maritime partnerships areessential to safeguard critical infrastructure.
B. Balancing Talent Retention and Global Collaboration
Trump’s green card reforms highlight the urgency of investing in India’s domesticinnovation ecosystem. Strengthening public-private partnerships in research andeducation can retain top talent while fostering global collaborations.
C. Leveraging Strategic Projects for Regional Stability
The Kaladan project is not just an economic endeavor but a strategic one. India’s timelyengagement in the Arakan region could redefine its role in Southeast Asia, providing analternative to Chinese influence.
D. Proactive Diplomacy in a Multipolar World
From the Baltic Sea to the Arakan region, India’s diplomatic strategy must align withits broader goals of regional stability and economic growth. Active participation inforums like G20, ASEAN, and BIMSTEC will be critical.
E. Ensuring the Safety of Indian Nationals in Afghanistan
As tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalate, India must tread cautiously to avoid being falsely implicated in fueling anti-Pakistan activities, as often alleged by Islamabad. There is a growing concern that Indian businessmen, former security consultants, and other professionals operating in Afghanistan could be abducted and coerced into making false confessions of being RAW agents. Such incidents not only jeopardize individual safety but also risk straining India’s diplomatic efforts in the region. To mitigate this, India should enhance security protocols for its nationals in Afghanistan, establish rapid response teams, and engage with international organizations to ensure their protection. Proactive measures, including consistent monitoring and robust communication channels, will underscore India’s commitment to regional stability while safeguarding its diaspora from becoming pawns in geopolitical rivalries.
Conclusion
The complexities of today’s geopolitical landscape require a multidimensional approach to policymaking. For India, these challenges also present opportunities to assert itself as a responsible global leader. Whether addressing Baltic security, reshaping talent flows, or revitalizing regional projects, India must leverage its strategic advantages to navigate the uncertainties of a multipolar world.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News)
