Dipak Kurmi
The last time Donald Trump occupied the White House, the Indo-US relationship thrived, bolstered by mutual strategic interests and a shared affinity between him and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their camaraderie was on full display at massive public events—such as the 2019 “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston and Trump’s grand reception in Ahmedabad in 2020—that reinforced a sense of growing warmth between the two nations. However, this momentum faltered under the Joe Biden administration, which ushered in a new set of geopolitical and economic challenges that strained the bilateral dynamic. With Trump’s return to power, the question now is whether Modi’s latest meeting with him at the White House marks a fresh beginning in restoring and strengthening this critical partnership.
The decline in Indo-US relations under Biden can largely be attributed to differing approaches on major global issues. The most contentious among them has been India’s neutral stance on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While the Biden administration rallied allies to impose sanctions on Russia, India chose instead to maintain its strategic autonomy and secure discounted Russian oil, a move that did not sit well with Washington.
Other flashpoints included America’s approach to South Asia. The Biden administration’s stringent sanctions on Myanmar’s military junta, coupled with its support for anti-junta rebels, contributed to instability along India’s northeastern border state of Manipur. Additionally, Biden’s approval of a $450-million deal to upgrade Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jet fleet and his administration’s overtures to Bangladesh’s military-backed interim government further exacerbated tensions with India. The descent of Bangladesh into lawlessness and Islamist extremism following the ouster of an India-friendly government has posed fresh security challenges for New Delhi, which is already contending with a growing influx of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.
Perhaps most unsettling for India was Biden’s stance on Sikh separatist groups operating within the US. In a move that enraged New Delhi, the White House engaged with Sikh leaders and launched a criminal investigation into India’s alleged involvement in assassination plots targeting Sikh militants in North America. This added another layer of mistrust to an already fraying relationship.
With Trump back in power, hopes were high in India that bilateral relations would be reset to their former glory. Trump’s admiration for strongman leaders and his affinity for Modi’s nationalist brand of politics suggested that the two might find common ground once again. However, within weeks of taking office, Trump began implementing his campaign promises with little consideration for America’s strategic allies—India included.
One of the first signs that India would not be spared from Trump’s hardline trade policies was his imposition of reciprocal tariffs, including steel and aluminum levies that targeted India’s exports. Modi’s government had preemptively reduced tariffs on American imports, hoping to stay in Trump’s good graces, but the gesture did little to deter the US president, who has long viewed India as a “very big abuser” of tariffs. Trump remains fixated on eliminating India’s $35-billion trade surplus with the US, demanding increased Indian imports of American oil, petroleum products, and defense equipment.
While Trump’s pledge to lower oil prices may offer economic relief to India—given its status as the world’s third-largest consumer of primary energy—his trade strategy remains deeply transactional. During his first presidency, he used the threat of tariffs as leverage to extract favorable trade deals from Japan and attempted a similar approach with India, ultimately revoking India’s special trade status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Should Trump escalate tariffs once again, India’s economy, particularly its “Make in India” initiative, could suffer setbacks.
Additionally, Trump’s “America First” policy is at odds with India’s long-standing dominance as the world’s “back office,” providing IT and business outsourcing services to American firms. A stricter US immigration policy—especially concerning H-1B visas, which many Indian tech professionals rely on—could further complicate economic ties.
Despite trade-related tensions, Indo-US cooperation on defense and strategic matters remains robust. Over the last decade, India has pivoted away from Russian military imports in favor of American defense platforms, a trend that is expected to continue under Trump. Recent agreements have strengthened military interoperability between the two nations, and the US has overtaken Russia as India’s largest arms supplier.
Trump’s geopolitical calculus is centered on containing China’s growing influence, a goal that aligns well with India’s strategic priorities. Both nations share an interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, ensuring maritime security, and countering China’s hegemonic ambitions. Modi and Trump are likely to emphasize enhanced collaboration in critical and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space exploration, areas where the US sees India as a key partner.
Trump’s stance on global conflicts also presents opportunities for India. His repeated pledges to end the Ukraine war through negotiations—rather than continuing to fund the conflict—could make India’s neutral stance on Russia far less of an issue in US diplomacy. Likewise, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy may result in decreased US engagement in South Asia, leaving India with greater maneuverability in its own backyard.
The Modi-Trump dynamic is built on mutual admiration, but history has shown that warm personal ties alone do not translate into seamless diplomacy. Trump is an unpredictable and deeply transactional leader who prioritizes America’s economic gains above all else. Modi, on the other hand, is tasked with safeguarding India’s strategic autonomy while maximizing the benefits of Indo-US cooperation.
For India, navigating Trump 2.0 will require a careful balancing act. While increased defense and technology cooperation present significant opportunities, trade disputes and immigration policies could become major roadblocks. Modi’s approach so far has been one of pragmatic appeasement—offering tariff concessions and trade commitments in hopes of securing broader strategic gains. Whether this strategy proves successful will depend on Trump’s willingness to reciprocate goodwill rather than exploit India’s vulnerabilities.
As the Indo-US relationship enters this new phase, one thing is clear: trust must be accompanied by vigilance. The two nations share critical strategic interests, but their economic and political priorities will require continuous negotiation. In an increasingly uncertain world, India must ensure that its engagement with Trump remains defined by pragmatism, not just personal rapport.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
