Dipak Kurmi
In the face of rising geopolitical uncertainties, India is poised to redefine its role in global politics with a series of high-level diplomatic engagements. The ongoing political developments have been influenced by a complex mix of trade tariffs, evolving partnerships, and regional power dynamics. A significant milestone in this realignment is the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Japan and China, marking a new chapter in India’s foreign policy. These visits come at a critical moment when global political landscapes are in flux, largely due to the trade war initiated by the United States and its imposition of a 50% tariff on India. This tariff presents India with both challenges and opportunities, triggering a series of geopolitical realignments in the region.
Prime Minister Modi’s recent diplomatic journey began with a much-anticipated visit to Japan. His arrival was warmly welcomed by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, government officials, and the Japanese populace. The grandeur of the reception was evident as Japanese women, adorned in traditional Indian attire, recited the Gayatri Mantra and performed a Rajasthani welcome song in honor of the Indian leader. This cultural display was not just ceremonial but symbolic of the deep, long-standing cultural and civilizational ties between India and Japan. Both nations share a vision for the future, and this visit laid the groundwork for furthering their partnership across several key sectors such as technology, defense, green energy, and investment.
The bilateral talks held between Modi and Ishiba were marked by a comprehensive agenda covering a wide range of issues. Prime Minister Modi highlighted the complementary strengths of both nations—Japan’s technological prowess and India’s vast pool of talent. He emphasized that Japan is a “tech powerhouse,” while India is a “talent powerhouse.” The shared goal of both leaders was to elevate Asia on the global stage, and they envisioned a united effort to lead the world into the future. This special strategic partnership, which has been steadily growing over the past 11 years, is set to expand into areas like artificial intelligence, chip manufacturing, and clean energy, with the objective of placing the Asian century at the forefront of global politics.
During his address at the India-Japan Joint Economic Forum, PM Modi underscored the importance of collaboration between the two countries. He invited Japan and other nations to invest in India, stating, “Come, make in India, make for the world.” He pointed out Japan’s crucial role as a partner for India, particularly in areas ranging from semiconductors to startups. He noted that Japanese firms have invested more than USD 40 billion in India, reinforcing the mutual benefits of this partnership. Modi’s invitation was clear: India is open for business, and it is a promising destination for investment and growth.
Modi further elaborated on the dynamic transformations India has experienced in the last decade. Underpinned by political stability, economic resilience, and transparent policies, India is poised to become the third-largest economy in the world. He emphasized that 80% of foreign companies are keen to expand their operations in India, with 75% already seeing profitability. This showcases the potential for further economic growth and the mutually beneficial relationship that India offers to foreign investors. It was not just about trade; it was about shaping the future together.
During his visit to Japan, PM Modi also toured technological landmarks such as the Electron Factory in Tokyo and the Tohoku Shinkansen plant in Sendai, which manufactures coaches for the world-famous bullet trains. The discussions on India’s own bullet train initiative and Japan’s potential involvement in this project were critical. India’s ambition to modernize its infrastructure through the bullet train network will benefit from Japanese expertise in high-speed rail technology. These investments are part of the broader picture of India-Japan cooperation, which seeks to address regional and global challenges through innovation and collaboration.
While the partnership with Japan flourishes, all eyes are now on the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to China, where he is set to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. Modi’s presence at the summit after a seven-year hiatus signals India’s intent to re-engage with China at a time of heightened global tensions. For the Indian government, the SCO summit presents a unique opportunity to discuss key regional issues, economic cooperation, and geopolitical concerns with Chinese leadership, particularly President Xi Jinping.
The relationship between India and China, which has been fraught with historical tensions, has seen significant turbulence over the past few years. A particularly damaging episode occurred in 2020 with the deadly confrontation at Galwan Valley, which marked the lowest point in Sino-Indian relations in recent decades. However, recent developments indicate a thawing of relations. At the BRICS summit in Russia last year, Modi and Xi met face-to-face for the first time in four years, providing hope for the future of bilateral ties. The SCO summit offers another crucial opportunity for dialogue between the two nations, especially given their strategic positions in the world’s political and economic order.
It is important to understand that the shift in India’s approach towards China is not solely driven by diplomatic necessity but also by economic interests. India’s trade deficit with China, which reached a staggering 99.2 billion USD for the fiscal year ending in March 2025, underscores the significance of bilateral trade. While India imports a wide range of goods from China, including electronics and machinery, there is untapped potential for enhancing exports to China, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and agricultural products. Indian enterprises, including major corporations like Reliance Industries and the Adani Group, are actively exploring opportunities for collaboration with Chinese firms, signaling an eagerness to capitalize on the growing market in China.
For China, improving ties with India is equally important, especially given its own economic challenges. As China faces a slowdown in domestic consumption, access to the Indian market could provide a vital boost for Chinese companies. The Indian electric vehicle (EV) market, in particular, presents significant growth prospects for Chinese manufacturers. With the EV industry booming in India, Chinese firms could gain a competitive edge by expanding their operations in the country. India’s potential as a global hub for EV manufacturing aligns with China’s ambitions to stay ahead in the global green energy transition.
Despite the ongoing trust deficit, which has its roots in historical disputes and territorial conflicts, there are clear reasons for both India and China to engage positively. From an economic standpoint, a closer partnership with China could help India boost its export market, while China could benefit from access to one of the world’s largest emerging markets. The geopolitical landscape, with growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific region and the shifting influence of the United States in South Asia, makes it imperative for India and China to find common ground.
The involvement of Russia in the SCO summit also provides an interesting dynamic. Russia, which has close ties with both India and China, could play a key role in facilitating dialogue between the two nations. The SCO, which includes countries like Russia, China, India, and several Central Asian states, is seen as an important platform for fostering cooperation and addressing regional security challenges. The summit’s agenda is likely to focus on counterterrorism, economic integration, and regional stability, with both India and China playing central roles in shaping the discussions.
As the Indian Prime Minister prepares for his visit to China and the SCO summit, the global community will be watching closely to see how the two countries navigate their complex relationship. The political dynamics at play suggest that both nations have compelling reasons to build trust and enhance cooperation. If successful, this thaw in relations could pave the way for a new era of collaboration between India and China, with far-reaching implications for the region and the world.
India’s strategic alignment with Japan and its efforts to engage with China represent a crucial moment in the country’s foreign policy evolution. The diplomatic initiatives spearheaded by PM Modi are not just about strengthening bilateral ties with these nations but are also about positioning India at the heart of global politics. As Asia rises to prominence on the world stage, India’s role in shaping the future of the region is becoming increasingly significant. With a delicate balance of diplomacy, economic cooperation, and regional security, India’s path forward will undoubtedly influence the broader trajectory of international relations in the coming years.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
