As a Chemical Engineer and Director of Nandini Consultancy Centre, a firm of Chemical engineers and chemical business consultants based at Chennai and Singapore, I am highly concerned about the likely price of solar power that may be in the region of Rs. 14/- to 15/- per unit which is beyond the buying capacity of the consuming industry and domestic consuming sector. Solar power equipment and poly crystalline silicon are the main factors contributing to the cost of production of solar power, unlike in the case of coal and natural gas based power projects where fuel accounts for around 70 to 75% of the power generating cost.
China is the global leader in solar photovoltaic equipment and holds around 50% of the global market share. Indian equipment are not competitive in the global market. There is no indication that the price of the solar equipment in the global market would come down in the immediate future.
For every megawatt of solar power, 10 tonnes of poly crystalline silicon is required. In other words, for the targeted 20000 MW of solar power in India by 2022, the requirement of polycrystalline silicon would be around two lakh tonnes. India does not produce poly crystalline silicon at present and no project for poly crystalline silicon is in the advanced stage of planning or implementation at present. While India is seeking to build 20,000 MW of solar power capacity, no thought has been given for capacity creation for poly crystalline silicon in India so far. Therefore, the Indian requirement of poly crystalline silicon have to be entirely met by imports and India will be at the mercy of international producers and particularly producers in China for it's poly crystalline silicon requirement, and global producers are bound to increase the price of poly crystalline silicon , as the helpless Indian solar power industry would seek import of poly crystalline silicon. Indian solar power industry would be subjected to huge and intolerable price pressure from the international price cartel , as it is just now happening in the case of many other products such as potash fertiliser which is not produced in India.
Under the circumstances, any significant fall in the cost of production of solar power is unlikely.
Any significant fall in the price of solar power may happen marginally by increased efficiency of solar power projects that require huge research and development efforts.
Obviously, the Government of India and state governments have to give huge subsidy support in price for the solar power, to make it affordable for the consuming industry and the domestic consuming sector. It is still not clear as to whether the governments would be in a position to extend such price subsidy support, given the present precarious state of finances of several state governments and the huge subsidy burden already carried by the central government.
It would be more appropriate to make a proper pricing forecast for solar power and put it in public domain, so that the investors, public and financing agencies would be aware of the real scenario.
China is the global leader in solar photovoltaic equipment and holds around 50% of the global market share. Indian equipment are not competitive in the global market. There is no indication that the price of the solar equipment in the global market would come down in the immediate future.
For every megawatt of solar power, 10 tonnes of poly crystalline silicon is required. In other words, for the targeted 20000 MW of solar power in India by 2022, the requirement of polycrystalline silicon would be around two lakh tonnes. India does not produce poly crystalline silicon at present and no project for poly crystalline silicon is in the advanced stage of planning or implementation at present. While India is seeking to build 20,000 MW of solar power capacity, no thought has been given for capacity creation for poly crystalline silicon in India so far. Therefore, the Indian requirement of poly crystalline silicon have to be entirely met by imports and India will be at the mercy of international producers and particularly producers in China for it's poly crystalline silicon requirement, and global producers are bound to increase the price of poly crystalline silicon , as the helpless Indian solar power industry would seek import of poly crystalline silicon. Indian solar power industry would be subjected to huge and intolerable price pressure from the international price cartel , as it is just now happening in the case of many other products such as potash fertiliser which is not produced in India.
Under the circumstances, any significant fall in the cost of production of solar power is unlikely.
Any significant fall in the price of solar power may happen marginally by increased efficiency of solar power projects that require huge research and development efforts.
Obviously, the Government of India and state governments have to give huge subsidy support in price for the solar power, to make it affordable for the consuming industry and the domestic consuming sector. It is still not clear as to whether the governments would be in a position to extend such price subsidy support, given the present precarious state of finances of several state governments and the huge subsidy burden already carried by the central government.
It would be more appropriate to make a proper pricing forecast for solar power and put it in public domain, so that the investors, public and financing agencies would be aware of the real scenario.
