Dipak Kurmi
The prospects for peace in Ukraine, a nation embroiled in war against Russian aggression since February 2022, seem to be fading with each passing day. Far from reaching a resolution, the conflict has only deepened, entrenching both sides in a protracted struggle with no clear path forward. Recent geopolitical developments have further complicated the situation, with the United States seemingly recalibrating its stance on Ukraine and Russia sensing an opportunity to reclaim diplomatic legitimacy.
At the center of this unfolding drama is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who, in his desperate bid to secure US support, recently faced an embarrassing setback when meeting with former US President Donald Trump. Trump, who has previously boasted that he could end the war in a single day, blindsided both Europe and Ukraine by engaging in direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. His abrupt approach to peace negotiations—bypassing key stakeholders—has raised concerns over the fate of Ukraine and the broader stability of Europe.
The Minerals Deal: A Bargain for Peace?
Zelenskyy, seeking to bolster Ukraine’s security, had attempted to negotiate a minerals deal with the US in exchange for security guarantees. Ukraine possesses vast reserves of lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium, and rare earth metals—resources that are crucial for global industries, from defense to electric vehicles. Notably, around 20% of these deposits are located in territories currently under Russian control. Trump, however, conditioned his administration’s support on Ukraine’s willingness to hand over a staggering $500 billion worth of mineral assets—an amount far exceeding the $69.2 billion in military aid that the US has provided to Ukraine since 2014.
Zelenskyy initially rejected the demand, viewing it as a blatant attempt to exploit Ukraine’s natural resources without ensuring adequate security in return. However, facing increasing isolation, he later relented, acknowledging that some form of US economic stake in Ukraine might deter further Russian aggression. Yet, no formal agreement materialized, as the meeting swiftly unraveled. Trump’s impatience with Zelenskyy was evident, and his ultimatum was stark: “Make a deal (on the war) or we’re out.” The harsh reality for Ukraine became painfully clear—Washington’s primary focus lay not in unconditional support, but in leveraging the war for economic and strategic advantage.
Ukraine Sidelined as US-Russia Talks Gain Momentum
The ill-fated meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy took place against the backdrop of secret US-Russia negotiations in Riyadh. These talks, which notably excluded Ukraine and European representatives, were attended by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on one side, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Foreign Policy Advisor Yuri Ushakov on the other. Reports indicate that the discussions were “extremely positive,” with both nations exploring avenues to restore full diplomatic ties, end the conflict, and develop closer economic cooperation. While no specific timeline has been set for a direct Trump-Putin summit, the shifting diplomatic landscape suggests that Russia views Trump’s initiative as a golden opportunity to break free from Western isolation.
For Europe, this development is deeply alarming. Trump’s willingness to engage with Russia without NATO allies at the table has raised fears that he may concede to Moscow’s demand to halt NATO’s eastward expansion or even dismantle the US-led sanctions regime imposed since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. As European leaders watch from the sidelines, they are confronted with an urgent question: Can they prevent Trump from making a deal that effectively undercuts Ukraine’s sovereignty and security?
A European Solution?
Amidst the uncertainty, European powers have begun formulating their own proposal to secure peace. The UK and France have reportedly developed a plan to initiate a one-month ceasefire, encompassing air, sea, and infrastructure protections. This would involve a “coalition of the willing” comprising European forces—without NATO branding—providing security guarantees, while the US would offer limited logistical and air cover. The hope is that such an arrangement would give Ukraine a strategic respite and deter further Russian incursions.
However, two major obstacles remain. First, the US, under Trump, appears lukewarm about backing any new security commitments in Ukraine. The administration has paused aid to Kyiv, signaling that Ukraine is no longer a priority. Second, Russia remains firmly opposed to the presence of NATO or Western-backed forces in Ukraine, viewing such an arrangement as a direct provocation. This deadlock further complicates the fragile peace process.
A War With No End in Sight
While Trump maintains that Russia is ready to stop the fighting, the reality on the ground paints a different picture. Ukraine, despite facing relentless missile and drone barrages, has shown resilience, even launching counteroffensives into Russian territory, particularly in the Kursk region. Meanwhile, Russia continues to register significant territorial gains in Ukraine’s eastern provinces. Neither side is willing to lay down arms, as both still believe that military victory is attainable.
The stark truth remains that wars do not end simply because external actors dictate terms; they cease only when the warring parties themselves acknowledge that their objectives are no longer achievable through force. At present, neither Ukraine nor Russia appears ready for such a concession. The grim implication is that the conflict is far from over, and despite Trump’s claims of an “immediate” resolution, the road to peace remains fraught with obstacles, strategic calculations, and a widening gulf between the interests of global powers and Ukraine’s own survival.
The Harsh Geopolitical Reality
Ukraine now finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with the painful realization that its long-time allies, particularly the US, may no longer prioritize its security over broader geopolitical considerations. While European nations scramble to fill the void, their ability to influence the outcome remains uncertain. With the US and Russia engaging in backchannel negotiations, Ukraine faces the uncomfortable prospect of being sidelined in discussions about its own fate.
As the war drags on, the world watches anxiously. Will Ukraine manage to navigate this perilous diplomatic landscape and secure lasting peace? Or will the conflict continue to rage on, with Ukraine bearing the brunt of a geopolitical chess game between great powers? For now, peace remains elusive, and the road ahead appears more uncertain than ever.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
