Combo photo shows former Vice President of the United States Joe Biden (L) and sitting President Donald Trump delivering their respective speeches on different occasions. (IANS Photo)
NEW YORK, OCTOBER 28 (IANS): 'What-if' scenarios, polling errors, nightmare scenarios from statistical flubs in 2016 and non toss-up maps are the toast of frenzied US media coverage in the final week before Americans choose their next President on November 3.
Polling errors are getting a tonne of attention in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - the states that sank Hillary Clinton four years ago.
Both Florida and Pennsylvania are emerging as must-win states for Trump in his re-election bid. Seen another way, Trump must carry at least one of the three rustbelt states he won in 2016: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan.
Clinton led by 4 points in Michigan and 5 points in Wisconsin in polling averages in those states in 2016, and then lost both the states by less than 1 point.
Where does Biden stand today? He's got a little more elbow room than Clinton did at this point in the race. Biden's up by an average of 8.9 points in Michigan (polling errors in the 3-4 points range). The story is same in Wisconsin where he leads Trump by an average of 7.8 points. Polling error remains in the 3-4 points range.
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight thinks Biden could survive a "2016-magnitude miss".
The Pennsylvania conversation gets more intense. Polls were off by more than 4 points in 2016 and Trump carried the state after trailing in final polling by a shade less than 4 points. In the 'what-if' world, Biden's current lead there of anywhere between 3.8 (RealClearPolitics) and 5.1 (FiveThirtyEight) would put this must-win state into the cliffhanger territory.
And, just in on Wednesday morning EST, Trump is inching ahead by the slimmest of margins (0.4) in a poll of 5 polls conducted between October 20 and 25. Polling error: 3-5 points. In other polling averages where Biden leads Trump, the margins are razor thin - less than 2 points.
Here's another data point that's off the charts: As of Sunday, October 25, 60 million people had already voted. That is more than the 47.2 million in 2016 general election pre-poll votes and more than the 58 million in-person and mail ballots cast in 2016.
In two of the six battlegrounds -- Wisconsin and Pennsylvania -- mail-in ballots will not be processed until Election Day, which means counting is likely to go well past midnight. It's the same story in a total of 14 states.
For folks wondering when to bring out the popcorn on November 3, it's likely that the first trends will begin trickling in at around 7 pm EST (5:30 am IST, November 4).
