Bharat Karnad, a strategist and was a member of a National Security Advisory Board, was once known to have assumed that the United States has a ‘nursery’ for growing great powers while underscoring India’s effort in early alignment with the United States’ geopolitical strategy. He is known for his antithetical viewpoint to the ideals of India’s first PM who stood firm on ‘soft state’ policy, and arguing that nurturing a great power is, inter alia, the “use of both soft power and hard power to expansively mark its status in the external realm”.
To say that his strategic thinking has categorically given effect to a paradigm shift in respect to foreign policy of the current Modi government is a time factor, yet it is hardly deniable that NDA’s brand ‘Act East’ has timely paralleled with America’s ‘Pivot to Asia’. This common interest in Southeast Asia has brought the two former not-so-friendly nations to a common calculated platform, which is unprecedented and unanticipated.
It is unprecedented as the self-proclaimed Non-Aligned nation, India, has never been into any military alliance with any groupings nor involve in geopolitical game which contribute to destabilizing an established government. Further, it is unanticipated because the leader of the Non-Aligned Group has strayed from its principled stance to militarily flourish a nexus with elite forces. Either ways, the real intent of such a shift in foreign policy and, essentially, a more pragmatic participation in military exercises lies in its attempt to pose itself an emerging superpower.
Having learnt a lesson from the 1962 episode, India is treading cautiously in designing its claim to be a would-be superpower. Adding to its ostensible military vision for possible alliance is the availability of options at its knees for remedy in case of any fall-out. It may be recounted that the then National Security Advisor to the NDA government under Vajpayee hinted at a possible formation of a Washington-Tel Aviv-New Delhi axis in the international affairs. The audience is of the opinion that the current political dispensation is implementing this vision into a reality.
Growing weary of China and its presumptuous rise in both military and economic arenas, also facing with uneasy relationship with its neighbors surrounding to the east through north and till west, India has to reluctantly re-orient its foreign policy to look to some great powers to rebalance the disadvantages it get and check the advantages that accrued to the regional rivals at the expense of its soft approach.
Thus, the foundation of the US-India relationship was envisaged in 2005 when the 123 agreement was signed known as the Indo-US nuclear deal. Though, the previous government stopped short of meeting certain options advanced by the US, the NDA government has seized an opportune time by walking an extra mile in forging the relationship to a new horizon.
The NDA regime has cleared itself of doubts to be a military partner of the United States as contemplated in the announced logistic support agreement (LSA) to be signed between the two countries shortly. Under this agreement, the US Army would be allowed to have access to India’s air, land and naval bases and vice versa. In addition, work for preparatory work on site in India for six nuclear reactors to be built by an American company will also commence very soon.
Not coincidental, India followed the steps of the United States vis-à-vis Vietnam where the latter had recently lifted the arms sales ban on Vietnam in line with Obama’s signature foreign policy of rebalancing Asia-Pacific. India and Vietnam signed a Joint Vision Statement on defence cooperation for 2015-2020 in 2015. Accordingly, a $ 100 million line of credit was okayed for Vietnam mainly for defence procurement. Vietnam’s readiness for Brahmos missiles could be next as Russia, the co-developer of the missile, gave a green signal to India for sale as Russia was previously edgy.
Despite a major breakthrough in heralding a novel concept in India’s presence in international affairs, Modi isn’t successful yet. The question of morality in ensuring country’s greatness, the issue of economic and social disparities backed by underdevelopment and most importantly the separatist and revolutionary movements extended its arms across the country that stood in Modi’s way.
Dubbed as the mother of all political movement in the Northeast, Naga National Movement (NNM) has offered Modi with a complex-stricken action-oriented dialogue as he already has it at his finger’s end that a mono-pronged approach would dearly cost his ambitious Act East. Premised on the following considerations, the Modi government is devising an early solution to the protracted Naga political problem.
Firstly, India has so long ignored the vitality of Myanmar in ‘looking east’ while economically ‘acting west’. The West, however, is technically losing its purchasing power. This is to mean that even if India were to substantially produce commodities in manifold, its export to the west would boomerang back affecting its economy. Change of guard in Myanmar as well as lucrative trade opportunities in Southeast Asia is, therefore, the only alternative available to Modi to look away from the crisis-hit west to keep India’s growth consistent and remain higher against China. In the absence of free-conflict zone, a secured border and presumptive ‘loyal’ citizens, materializing a friendly neighbor is next to achievement as is the case of India’s relationship with Pakistan. A pre-arrived thesis has it that solving Naga issue would eventually solve Northeast’s problem. Stemming from this framework, the Modi government attaches special interest to the Naga issue as Northeast would evolve centre of excellence and economic hub as far as avenues in Southeast Asia is concerned.
Secondly, Modi is curious that China may fill the crevices (Naga political movement) India has left unsealed. At the peak of the struggle for independence, members of the Naga Armed Forces ventured to China through thick and thin. We have evidences of China having sold-off arms and ammunitions in support of our struggle. Even instances of equipping us logistically, including base-training, were being told in days gone-by. Ideologically, as per the constitution of various Political Groups (GPs), Nagas are more inclined towards socialistic mode rather than the more privatized India. To postulate that, with our migration route pointed to China (at least) thereby establishing a brotherly feeling, big brother has a responsibility to protect its younger brothers. Acting to its Act East Policy, India’s effort to befriend with, and arming of, Vietnam is already in the air. Hence, a forceful backlash from Beijing is expected. Modi is not taking any chance in letting Beijing gaining confidence with Naga Armed Groups in case of any fall-out of the Indo-Naga Talk.
Third and lastly, preparing to be a superpower would be a mockery in the long run if India fails to solve its usually ‘dubbed’ internal disturbances. Conceptually, the Naga problem has been recognised as ‘political’ whereas in spirit India pursues its goal palpably to asphyxiate Naga independence movement by endeavoring to grade Naga problem as ‘internal’. This is explicitly indicated in political phrases resulting from the current talk including ‘shared sovereignty’, ‘Pan Naga Hoho’ and ‘Supra State’ to be accorded to Nagas. If the Modi government successfully solves the Naga problem, Modi would undoubtedly emerge as a world leader and a global ambassador for peace. This would paint a bright picture for India, and especially the NDA government, in international scenario. This would lift India’s image as an emerging but peaceful super power, accelerating India’s entry to the UN’s Security Council, and conveniently accommodate in the elite club of Nuclear Suppliers Group. All these would present India with more say in global issues.
While all eyes were staring west in most stages of historical past, now with west wink its concentration to the oriental world, it is noted that India’s approach has shifted accordingly. The Middle East, by virtue of its strategic location supported by its huge petroleum reserves, serves as a battle ground for the world’s major powers. Though there is no similarity between the Middle East and the restive India’s Northeast, the possibility of struggle for territorial supremacy and for natural resources in near future could not be ruled out in Southeast Asia including India’s northeast. With China anxiously watching India-US partnership in Asia-Pacific, and as each of the parties has a committed interest in the region, any development that challenge the prestige of these nations could suddenly escalate into a full-fledged regional war. GoI is hastening Indo-Naga Talks to consolidate its own power in search of greatness. For Nagas, if matured enough, we don’t have to rush to catch the speeding bus and get run over but unite ourselves first and advance a united voice to the GoI. Who knows, under pressure, GoI may finally accede to Naga’s right for self-determination as we truly deserve. For we all well knew that Germany’s search for greatness has resulted in WW-I and WW-II, liberating many of the colonized world.
Nukhosa Chüzho, Kohima
