NEW DELHI, April 1 (TNN): Asia is facing the brunt of climate change and will see severe stress on water resources and food-grain production in the future, increasing the risk of armed conflict among India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China, the latest report of a UN panel has warned.
UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its report assessing impacts of climate change on human health, settlements and natural resources released on Monday, carried a dire warning. “The worst is yet to come,” it said, if no measures are taken to curb the ill-effects of global warming.
India, like other developing economies, may lose up to 1.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if the annual mean temperature rises by 1 degree Celsius compared to pre-industrialization level, hitting the poor the most.
The report also predicts an increase in extreme weather events such as last year’s flash floods in Uttarakhand and cyclone Phailin in Odisha if steps are not taken to control the rise in temperature.
“Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change,” R K Pachauri, IPCC chairman said while making the report public in Yokohama, Japan.
The report says rise in temperatures would also affect ‘beach tourism’ in many countries. India surprisingly stands out as the most vulnerable among 51 countries where beach tourism is an important sector.
Climate change is not just about the future. The report said people around the world were already getting hit as it directly affects livelihoods, reduces food-grain production, destroys homes and raises food prices. These trends will accelerate if climate change is left unchecked.
Among other things, the report warns that climate change increases the risk of armed conflict around the world because it worsens poverty and economic shocks.
“Climate change is already becoming a determining factor in the national security policies of states”, said a statement issued by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which has been working to arrive at a global climate deal by 2015 to fight the menace effectively through combined efforts of nations.
Though the report doesn’t have country-specific predictions, its region-wise findings brought out many eye-opening conclusions for India.
Aromar Revi, lead author of one of the chapters of this report, said the impacts of climate change would be felt severely in Indo-Gangetic plains, affecting poor people in the entire region. “The areas which are facing frequent floods these days may face drought like situation in the distant or near future. We cannot ignore the changes which are taking place either in the Indus river basin or in Brahmputra river system over the longer period,” said Revi, explaining the implications of the report in Delhi.
Another lead author, Surender Kumar, explained how climate change would affect the poorer nations. He said if mean temperatures increased beyond 1 degree C, it would knock 3% off the GDP of developing economies.
