Keso Chakhesang | Climate Change LEADer, Nagaland
“Drought hit states demand over Rs. 72,000 Crores central aid”, screamed the headlines at the end of this week. These drought-ht states numbering 11 in the country and included in them being Nagaland is another alarm sounding off the walls of unwelcome changes in the climatic conditions that are happening right before us and we are the witnesses to such change. Out of these 11 states, 5 including our neighbours Assam, Manipur and Nagaland have declared the entire state as drought affected. This again is an alarming situation as we are all in the same region and such changes spreading across such a region and not just pockets of areas speaks of issues larger than what we may seem to see.
During the first 25 days of the monsoons this year, Nagaland had recorded a deficit rainfall of a whopping 60%, Assam 31% and Manipur 38%. There was hope that with abundant rainfall during the break-monsoon period during July-August, the deficit rainfall would be made up. During this period, monsoon activity decreases in other parts of the country while in the North-East, it increases. Apparently, the hopes pinned on this period have been dashed now resulting the entire state being declared as drought affected.
The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change reports that during the period from 1995 to 2006, the latter 11 years rank amongst the warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). It also reports that bservations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system. Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise. The average atmospheric water vapour content has increased since at least the 1980s over land and ocean as well as in the upper troposphere and is broadly consistent with the extra water vapour that warmer air can hold.
Studies over drought affected regions in parts of the world report that the strengthening of bands of high pressure systems may be the cause (www.theage.com). The strengthening of such high pressure systems and the intensification of their frequency was found to be closely linked to rising temperatures. Data generated over time and from experiments and simulations indicates that the natural influences like changing levels of solar activity did not affect the rainfall. However, when human influences like greenhouse gases, aerosols and ozone depletion were added to the equation, the data generated showed the same trends to those observed in the drought affected areas.
Could we be headed to a similar situation? Drought year after drought year? What initially caught my attention was the total aid amount demanded by the affected states from the centre. As I read on, I got more interested in something else – the costs of Climate Change. Yes. That’s what is happening before our very eyes and in our lifetime. There is no doubt that Climate Change is happening and that Governments worldwide are working at adaptation and mitigation strategies. There is no doubt that the costs of Climate Change are mounting – Govt. of India can now bear testimony to that.
Some economic models have estimated damages a as great as US $ 74 trillion. The first 2 degree increase in temperatures will have many harmful and costly effects for northern countries. The more developing countries are slated to experience higher costs and strain their economies. New studies indicate that the costs of inaction may be 2-3 times higher than previously thought.
These costs will only rise with each passing day and there is also one factor which will determine the rate at which such costs of Climate Change increase – inaction. Various studies caution of this eventuality that is common to all humankind based on the level of inaction.
One estimate from the German Institute for Economic Research (DWI), is that if nothing is done to contain to restrain greenhouse gas emissions, annual economic damages could reach US$20 trillion by 2100 (at 2002 prices), or 6 to 8 percent of the global economic output at that time. The same study found that immediate adoption of active climate protection policies could limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees and eliminate more than half of the damages; by 2100 this would avoid $ 12 trillion in annual damages by spending $3trillion per year on climate protection.
We are the most intelligent life form on the planet that now faces uncertainty in the face of Climate Change. We have it in us to look out for our better future and that of our children and their children. While governments formulate policies towards climate protection, that extra action of switching of the unused bulb or fan or appliance, or, that of turning off the tap to save just that little water will make all the difference. Today we have these resources in abundance, we must learn to use them judiciously and optimally. This done, it is a sure thing that our generations down the line will enjoy such resources for just that little longer.
In the adapted world we may be paying enormous prices for resources we today get virtually free. What seems now as an enormous price to pay, just might be virtually free in that adapted world.
The Climate Change Leaders (CCL) programme is sponsored by EHDRC, LEAD India (www.leadindia.org ). There are 8 CCL’s in Nagaland and 30 in the North East Region. The Nagaland CCL’s invite you to respond to this article on-line at www.morungexpress.com or email ccl.nagaland@gmail.com
