Data based on CRS reports (various years), ORGI.
Adjusted CRS data indicates highest mortality in past decade
Moa Jamir
Dimapur | June 8
Nagaland recorded a sharp spike in the number of deaths in 2021, according to an analysis of data from the Civil Registration System (CRS). The recently released Annual Report on Vital Statistics of India based on CRS – 2022, published by the Office of the Registrar General, India (ORGI), revealed that the State witnessed its highest death registrations in the past decade during 2021 and 2022.
Adjusted data shows spike
During the period from 2014 to 2022, the highest number of death registrations in Nagaland was recorded in 2022 at 3820, followed closely by 3780 in 2021. In comparison, the figure was 2509 in 2020.
However, a closer examination of the 2022 data shows that 1546 of the registrations were done more than a year after the actual deaths occurred—suggesting that these deaths likely happened in 2021. If these delayed entries are subtracted, the adjusted figure for 2022 comes down to 2274.
Similarly, for 2021, the original number of death registrations stood at 3780. Subtracting the 883 delayed registrations from that year brings the adjusted 2021 total to 2897. But adding the 1546 delayed entries from 2022 (assumed to have occurred in 2021), the adjusted figure rises significantly to 4443.
In 2020, out of the original 2509 registrations, 914 were late entries. This reduces the adjusted total to 1595. However, if 833 delayed entries from 2021 are considered as 2020 deaths, the adjusted total increases to 2478.
Thus, a year-wise comparison of adjusted data—excluding late entries and including delayed registrations from the following year—shows the following trend: 2019: 2252; 2020: 2478; 2021: 4443; and 2022: 2274.
This reflects a moderate rise in 2020, a sharp surge in 2021, and a return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, supporting the hypothesis that the year 2021 was an outlier likely caused by underreporting or delays during the COVID-19 pandemic.
'Corresponds' with COVID-19 data
The adjusted figures align with the broader understanding that the impact of COVID-19 in Nagaland was most severe in 2021, during the so-called 'Second Wave', following relatively fewer cases and fatalities in 2020.
According to the COVID-19 Weekly Bulletin published by the Department of Health and Family Welfare, Nagaland had recorded 11,929 confirmed cases and 69 deaths at the end of 2020. This amounted to a mortality rate of just 0.58%, compared to the national average of 1.45% and the global rate of 2.21%.
By January 1, 2022, however, the caseload had increased to 32,201, with 686 deaths and a significantly higher mortality rate of 2.13%.
This means 617 deaths were reported in 2021 alone, supporting the adjusted CRS figure of 4443 deaths for that year.
Meanwhile, as the thee Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's cumulative COVID-19 data from January 1, 2020 to May 5, 2023, Nagaland recorded 36,005 total cases, with 782 deaths and 35,218 recoveries or migrations.
Taking the adjusted average for non-pandemic years (around 2250 deaths), the data indicates an excess of over 200 deaths in 2020.
This surged by a whopping 79.27% or 1965 additional deaths in 2021, suggesting that that actual COVID-19 fatalities may have been more than double the officially reported number. This echoes similar trends of underreporting across India noted in national CRS data.
Curious decline after 2013
Interestingly, Nagaland’s 2022 figure of 3820 (non-adjusted) was not the highest historically. From 2004 to 2013, the State averaged over 6750 registered deaths annually, peaking at 7056 in 2013.
However, the number dropped sharply to 1975 in 2014 and has since remained below 3000, except during the COVID-19 years of 2021 and 2022. The reasons for this sudden decline post-2013 remain unclear.
Delay in registration
Despite the overall rise in registrations, Nagaland continues to rank among the lowest in timely registration of deaths—those registered within the legally mandated 21 days.
In 2022, only 30.7% of deaths were registered on time, placing Nagaland second-lowest nationally, after Arunachal Pradesh (15.4%).
The State also recorded the lowest rate of timely birth registrations in India. Out of 80,813 births in 2022, only 1709 (2.1%) were registered within 21 days. Many registration were after one year.
Nagaland also ranked second-lowest in medically certified deaths, with just 343 certified. Only Bihar had a lower percentage (5.4%), compared to the all-India average of 22.3%.
Detailed queries have been sent to the Department of Economics & Statistics, the agency responsible for collating CRS data, regarding the delay in registrations and the sharp decline in reported deaths post-2013. The report will be updated upon receiving a response.
