At a time when threat to peace is ever increasing, when conflict resolutions appear deadlocked, the Norwegian Nobel Committee had done the right thing by recognizing the significant role and contribution made by individuals and institution in these fields. By awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Mohamed ElBaradei and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the award committee has acknowledged the grave danger posed by proliferation of nuclear weapons. The prize will come as a vindication for the Egyptian diplomat and likely strengthen his mandate not only within the IAEA but in the international arena where the IAEA will be seen as a vital tool in engaging and monitoring nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea. Concurrently, recognition of Robert J Aumann and Thomas C Schelling for the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for their work in game-theory analysis should also come as a boost to those involved in peaceful negotiations. The pair won the prize for improving and enabling the understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis. “These insights have proven to be of great relevance for conflict resolution and efforts to avoid war”, in the assessment of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
The game-theory analysis in particular reminds of the eight year long peace process between the NSCN and Government of India, and in some way may prove insightful of the negotiations process taking place between the two entities in arriving at a peaceful resolution to the long drawn conflict. The peace talks have evolved somewhat into a Game Matrix of conflict and competition with both entities seeking to maximize gains and minimize losses as in a game of chess, poker or bridge. The question is, should the gain of one entity be at the cost of the other as in a zero sum game or can a collision be avoided by giving some form of mutual accommodation. As the status-quo power the Government of India has less of a choice. It can neither risk the option of acceding to the Naga demand in full (including integration) nor can it allow the crisis to deepen. The Game Matrix in which two drivers race fast towards each other on a narrow road would appear to be an appropriate model for illustrating the present predicament between the two entities. The choices for both the NSCN and Government of India are apparent. If they want to avoid the disastrous outcome of a collision there has to be some form of mutual swerving and giving the right of way to the other driver and vice-versa. Clearly the Indo-Naga political issue should not be seen as a Zero Sum Game. A full range of possible outcome or prospects must be explored and more importantly, both the two entities should talk to each other while considering a diplomatic and peaceful resolution rather than a ‘costly outcome’ where no one wins.
