Recovery rate dips below 40% but doubling time widens

•    772 front-liners in facility quarantine
•    3809 persons in home quarantine 
•    Dmr, Mon, Kma with the most number of persons in quarantine

Morung Express News
Dimapur | August 1

Nagaland’s COVID-19 recovery rate went below 40 percent during the past week. The weekly bulletin, released by the state Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP), Department of Health & Family Welfare, on August 1, tipped the recovery rate at 37.6 percent, almost 6 percentage points lower than the previous week’s analysis. 

In absolute numbers, that would translate into 640 ‘recovered’ against the total confirmed 1831 cases, as on 3:00pm, August 1. It is to be noted, however, that the weekly IDSP analysis was based on data as available on July 31. 

It explained away the low recovery rate, as, “This can be explained by the fact that most states do not have a retest policy before discharge. Our state’s discharge policy still mandates a negative result before discharge even for asymptomatic and mild cases.” The country’s recovery rate stands at over 64 percent. 

It further said that the past week witnessed the highest single-day spike of 127 cases on July 30, of which 61 cases were from the armed forces. 

The July 30 record high was however upended on August 1 with a single day figure of 138 cases. 

There was a bit of reassurance as far as the number of tests was concerned. The tests per 1000 people went up to touch 17.2 during the past week against the previous 15 tests per 1000 people. Nationally, the figure stands at 14.3 tests per 1000 people. A total of 5076 samples were tested in the past one week.  

The case “doubling rate” widened to 18 days, up from 15 days. On July 13, the state’s total cases stood at 845, which doubled to 1693 cases by July 31.  

The weekly bulletin was based July 31 data. For the sake of keeping pace with the newest update, The Morung Express referred to data as posted on August 1, according to which, the total of samples tested stood at 38,634 (RT-PCR: 22,436, TrueNat: 16,198). This is exclusive of 1302 “retest samples from positive cases,” as per the weekly bulletin. 

The positivity rate was at 4.5 percent against the country’s 8.7 percent. 

The mortality rate remained more or less the same at .23 percent against the previous .3 percent. It provided no conclusive description on the causes for the 4 recorded deaths, till date. 

The analysis only stated that all the 4 cases had “severe co-morbidities (Hypertension, diabetes, heart disease / heart surgery, Tuberculosis and chronic liver disease). As per ICMR and WHO ICD 10 classification, all deaths will be certified and reviewed by the state committee and classified as – COVID Deaths or non-COVID deaths with COVID Positivity.”

As on July 31, all the active cases in the state were described as “asymptomatic.” On August 1, there was one with “mild” symptoms and another in ICU on oxygen. 

87 percent of the patients were bracketed in the age group of 18-44 years, while, gender-wise, 82 percent were males. The youngest patient is a one-year old and the oldest is 94 years of age. 

A total of 118 frontline workers (medical and non-medical) have tested positive so far and as many as 8892 “contacts” have been traced. 

After civilian “returnees”, the armed forces make up 33 percent of the total positive cases, which translated into 566 personnel.