China, which has a tendency to issue dire warnings in response to perceived threats, was unusually muted last week. When US President Barack Obama unveiled plans to deploy 2,500 US Marines in northern Australia as part of a broader strategy to curb a rising China, Beijing`s response was almost philosophical. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman mused aloud whether "broadening military alliances is an effective model for regional integration" when the global economy was so gloomy.
In fact, China`s uncharacteristic reticence may have been part of a face-saving exercise at the setback it has suffered in Myanmar. Of all the news that came out of Obama`s APEC visit, the most troublesome for Beijing was the phone call that Obama made from Air Force One to the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and his announcement of Hillary Clinton`s impending visit to Myanmar - the first by an American secretary of state in 50 years.
The plan to station a few thousand troops and organise exercises with the Australian armed forces is partly designed to dispel the impression of a declining power withdrawing from the region. Washington`s revelation before Obama`s visit of a new Air Sea Battle concept to counter the "anti-access" strategy of some unnamed Asian power (read China, which has been developing missiles to attack US carriers), could worry Beijing, but it is still years of painful budget battles away. The immediate danger sign is the weakening of China`s ties with its close ally Myanmar and the return of American presence in its soft underbelly. In September, Myanmar`s new president Thein Sein shocked Beijing by cancelling the $3.6 billion Chinese hydro-electric dam project, even at the cost of a hefty cancellation fee of $42.5 million. Tremendous public opposition to the project, which planned to send most of its power to China but has already displaced tens of thousands people, forced the regime to choose between its legitimacy in the people`s eyes or its friendship with China.
Since then, a succession of developments have seen Myanmar`s opening up to the world: growing contact with US officials, including a November 3 meeting between a State Department official and the new Burmese defence chief; the defence minister visiting Vietnam even before making it to China; Thein Sein`s visit to India; the plan for Myanmar to host the Asean summit two years ahead of schedule and resumption of Japanese aid. But nothing is perhaps more worrisome for China`s strategists as Clinton`s arrival next week (December 1-2), marking the beginning of a new Great Game in Myanmar to block, or even roll back, Chinese advances to the south.
Ever since Myanmar`s military junta sank to a pariah status following its bloody suppression of democracy in 1988, China has assiduously built up a close alliance, backing the junta in the international arena, in the process winning control over the country`s vast natural resources. Myanmar`s strategic location has also allowed China a valuable corridor to the Bay of Bengal, allowing it to build oil and gas pipelines connecting to its interior. The pipeline not only eliminates 3,000 miles of sea travel through the Malacca Strait but Chinese-built ports enable Beijing to have a two-ocean strategy - with access to both the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.
India`s policy of building bridges with the junta since 2007, aimed at winning Myanmar`s help in fighting the Ulfa insurgency and offering a counterweight to China, seems to have encouraged the reclusive regime to come out of its shell. Growing Chinese economic presence and large-scale migration have led the Burmese to fear loss of their sovereignty further reducing the junta`s legitimacy. These concerns, combined with political and economic sanctions, have finally persuaded the junta to change course. Nationalistic to the point of being xenophobic, Myanmar`s junta may have concluded that its long-term survival lies not in China`s suffocating embrace but in a return to the non-aligned policy it had pursued in the past. The new warmth in its relationships with India and Vietnam, and its nascent opening to the US, the regime hopes, will ensure its survival and facilitate its readmission to the world community. But the lessening of Myanmar`s dependence on China that it signals can only set alarm bells ringing in Beijing.
Source: The Times of India
In fact, China`s uncharacteristic reticence may have been part of a face-saving exercise at the setback it has suffered in Myanmar. Of all the news that came out of Obama`s APEC visit, the most troublesome for Beijing was the phone call that Obama made from Air Force One to the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and his announcement of Hillary Clinton`s impending visit to Myanmar - the first by an American secretary of state in 50 years.
The plan to station a few thousand troops and organise exercises with the Australian armed forces is partly designed to dispel the impression of a declining power withdrawing from the region. Washington`s revelation before Obama`s visit of a new Air Sea Battle concept to counter the "anti-access" strategy of some unnamed Asian power (read China, which has been developing missiles to attack US carriers), could worry Beijing, but it is still years of painful budget battles away. The immediate danger sign is the weakening of China`s ties with its close ally Myanmar and the return of American presence in its soft underbelly. In September, Myanmar`s new president Thein Sein shocked Beijing by cancelling the $3.6 billion Chinese hydro-electric dam project, even at the cost of a hefty cancellation fee of $42.5 million. Tremendous public opposition to the project, which planned to send most of its power to China but has already displaced tens of thousands people, forced the regime to choose between its legitimacy in the people`s eyes or its friendship with China.
Since then, a succession of developments have seen Myanmar`s opening up to the world: growing contact with US officials, including a November 3 meeting between a State Department official and the new Burmese defence chief; the defence minister visiting Vietnam even before making it to China; Thein Sein`s visit to India; the plan for Myanmar to host the Asean summit two years ahead of schedule and resumption of Japanese aid. But nothing is perhaps more worrisome for China`s strategists as Clinton`s arrival next week (December 1-2), marking the beginning of a new Great Game in Myanmar to block, or even roll back, Chinese advances to the south.
Ever since Myanmar`s military junta sank to a pariah status following its bloody suppression of democracy in 1988, China has assiduously built up a close alliance, backing the junta in the international arena, in the process winning control over the country`s vast natural resources. Myanmar`s strategic location has also allowed China a valuable corridor to the Bay of Bengal, allowing it to build oil and gas pipelines connecting to its interior. The pipeline not only eliminates 3,000 miles of sea travel through the Malacca Strait but Chinese-built ports enable Beijing to have a two-ocean strategy - with access to both the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.
India`s policy of building bridges with the junta since 2007, aimed at winning Myanmar`s help in fighting the Ulfa insurgency and offering a counterweight to China, seems to have encouraged the reclusive regime to come out of its shell. Growing Chinese economic presence and large-scale migration have led the Burmese to fear loss of their sovereignty further reducing the junta`s legitimacy. These concerns, combined with political and economic sanctions, have finally persuaded the junta to change course. Nationalistic to the point of being xenophobic, Myanmar`s junta may have concluded that its long-term survival lies not in China`s suffocating embrace but in a return to the non-aligned policy it had pursued in the past. The new warmth in its relationships with India and Vietnam, and its nascent opening to the US, the regime hopes, will ensure its survival and facilitate its readmission to the world community. But the lessening of Myanmar`s dependence on China that it signals can only set alarm bells ringing in Beijing.
Source: The Times of India
