By Moa Jamir
The United Kingdom’s historic referendum to leave the European Union (EU) is the latest and biggest crises yet to shake the Union. Besides the immediate political and economic fallout as a result of the referendum, it also put the 28-Union bloc in an existential predicament having a dramatic ramification on the future of European project.
Formed in the aftermath World War II with the signing of the Treaty of Rome on March 25, 1957, with an objective to foster an economic and political partnership, the EU in the last five decades has undergone a sporadic but effective movement towards closer integration increasing from six original members to 28 by 2013 with many others in active consideration.
Closely related to the ongoing calamity, however, are inter-related challenges which the European leaders need solve with added urgency – its floundering economy, ageing population and the issue of immigration.
A significant trajectory of Europe after World War II has been the development of a generous social welfare policy or welfare state often regarded as its ‘jewel in the crown’ – the notion that the State has to play a certain proactive role to ensure the well-being of society.
However, the golden age of the welfare state began to crumble in the 1970s and concurrently, the economic prowess that was the hallmark of the European economies has been seriously undermined with the emergence of new global players and changed economic structure.
Presently, most of the EU member states are besieged with a stagnant economy, huge debt crisis, heavy tax burden, and high unemployment which threaten viability and sustainability of the welfare system in Europe. Austerity is the new mantra and every alternate day, the proclivity towards such measures is espoused.
Secondly, Europe is also undergoing a paradigmatic demographic shift, which ironically is a consequence of its affluence and advanced economic development. Recognised by the United Nations (UN) as key demographic trends having a profound impact on a broad range of economic, political and social processes, population ageing has been most pronounced in Europe.
The EU Ageing Report 2012 highlighted that while the percentage of people aged over 65 and over was 87.5 million in 2010, it is projected to increase to 156.6 million in 2060. This, in turn, will raise the total age-dependency ratio (people aged 14 and below and aged 65 and above over the population aged 15-64) from 49.3% in 2010 to 77.9% in 2060). The EU population of working-age (15-64 years) amounted to 335.4 million in 2012 and is projected to drop over the next 50 years to 290.6 million in 2060, depicted another data set.
The challenges are amplified further considering the projected fall in fertility rate coupled with increase in longevity. Consequently, a host of interrelated problems arises, chief among which are economic growth, tax burden, intergenerational conflicts, dependency, and social cohesion. Therefore demographic changes become a high level social, economic and policy concern across Europe.
Besieged with an ageing population, immigration is considered by many as a panacea for the crisis and postwar migration to and within Europe had been its novel and enduring features.
According to Eurostat (a Statistical arm of the European Union), on 1 January 2015 the population of the EU-28 was estimated at 508.2 million, but natural population increase (the difference between live births and deaths) contributed only 14.5% (0.2 million persons) while some 85.5% of the overall change in population came from net migration plus statistical adjustment. Similar reports suggest that over the period during 2010-2020, the cumulated net migration to the EU is projected to be 60 million.
Migration has profound and challenging effects in the social, economic, political and cultural dimensions of the receiving societies. While one European out of two expresses support for multiculturalism, a significant number of people perceive immigrants as a threat to social cohesion, national culture, and identity.
The European Commission recently admitted that there is an increase in xenophobic violence against migrants across Europe, which was alarming and it resolved to actively contribute to counter such attitudes. The persistent economic crisis has intensified such concerns as a certain section of the people use political rhetoric as well as apparent dissatisfaction with their government to influence domestic policies.
As a result, right-wing populism and call for restriction on immigration and seamless labour mobility have become most vocal in recent years. The outcome of the UK referendum was greatly influenced by such concerns.
It generates tension amongst competing imperatives in the form of intergenerational conflicts and allocation of resources among different sections of the society.
While the aforementioned concerns have been recognised as strong policy challenges in EU, a cohesive response still remains elusive in its policy structure. EU’s existing policy and strong bureaucratic mechanisms are also often attributed to such failures.
Urgent and decisive responses are most pertinent as the EU’s overall ability to control economic transformation and reinforce social cohesion in the long term is dependent on meeting these challenges.
A pro-active, decisive and reformed EU is the need of the hour.
For any comment, drop a line to moajamir@live.com
