Brian McCartan
United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon’s failure to win the release of detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi - or any other conciliatory concession - from Myanmar’s intransigent military rulers came as no surprise to observers. Senior General Than Shwe reaffirmed over the weekend his unwillingness to accept outside mediation of his country’s grinding political deadlock, crucially at a time his State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) regime is bidding to win international recognition for 2010 democratic elections few believe will be free and fair.
During his two-day visit, Ban met twice with Than Shwe at the remote capital of Naypyidaw and was twice denied permission to visit pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi, who is currently on trial for violating the terms of her house arrest. His requests for the release of over 2,000 political prisoners and the resumption of dialogue towards reconciliation with the political opposition were also refused out-of-hand.
Ban made the unusual move of publicly criticizing the junta on its home turf, expressing his “deep disappointment” and railing against the junta’s poor human-rights record to a crowd of assembled diplomats, aid workers and government officials. “Allowing a visit to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi would have been an important symbol of the government’s willingness to embark on the kind of meaningful engagement that will be essential if the elections in 2010 are to be seen as credible,” he said.
With most of the major political activists imprisoned or in exile, and the democratic opposition led by Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy repressed and cowed, Myanmar’s generals see little reason to negotiate. With general elections set to solidify their rule under a “discipline democracy” banner, allowing Suu Kyi’s and political prisoners’ release would only complicate, and potentially disrupt, their planned transition to nominally civilian rule.
A succession of UN envoys has failed to make headway with the reclusive military regime, which has weathered 38 different UN resolutions since cracking down on pro-democracy street protestors in 1988. The UN’s most punitive effort to date has come from its affiliated International Labor Organization, which through a series of investigations and threats of sanctions has forced the regime to reduce, although not entirely eliminate, forced labor. The United States and European Union have also put in place a series of economic sanctions against Myanmar since 1988 over the regime’s abysmal human-rights record. Opinion is divided among analysts and diplomats about the effectiveness of sanctions and United States policy towards Myanmar is currently under review by President Barack Obama’s administration.
Many argue the UN should also consider a strategic rethink. Ibrahim Gambari, the UN’s latest special rapporteur to Myanmar, has visited the country eight times and never met with Than Shwe. Ban’s previous visit in May 2008 - which was billed as a humanitarian mission rather than a political one - was touted as a success after Than Shwe agreed to allow foreign humanitarian agencies and aid supplies into Myanmar in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis.
However, that access was circumscribed to the worst-hit Irrawaddy Delta region and remained limited to that area despite UN and humanitarian aid organization hopes they would be allowed to establish programs in other parts of the country. Relief agencies have reported in recent months that the visa process has reverted to pre-cyclone arrangement which required foreigners to wait weeks before receiving visas.
Complex psychology
The SPDC’s collective psychology is complex and often incomprehensible to outside observers. On one hand, they feel compelled to legitimize their rule - both domestically and internationally - through tightly managed democratic elections most of the opposition will boycott. On the other, they are fully cognizant of how loathed they are by their own population and ridiculed in the international community for stage-managing what are expected to be sham polls.
The generals believe that once elections are held and the SPDC hands power to a civilian government that national reconciliation will be accomplished. The junta has also ensured that through a new constitution passed by a referendum last year that it will remain the real power at both national and local levels. That includes provisions mandating a quarter of regional assembly members and each region’s chief minister be appointed by the central government, while the military also retains the discretionary powers to intervene in the event of undefined emergencies.
Despite the rough diplomatic treatment, Ban continues to give the junta the benefit of the doubt. “I believe they will seriously consider my proposals and I believe they got the message,” he said at a press conference in Bangkok on Saturday. “[Than Shwe] was saying that after [the election] he will hand over power to civilians. He said when I come back he may be a civilian ... That means he’s committed to hand over all power.” Representatives of ethnic ceasefire groups were allowed to meet with Ban during his visit. However, all were members of groups that have agreed to merge with the Myanmar army and participate in the general elections. None of the major ceasefire groups, including the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army or the 10,000-strong Kachin Independence Organization, were present at the meetings.
Until now, the UN has largely paid only lip service to Myanmar’s ethnic problems and has shown little effort to address the political implications of ethnic insurgency beyond the human-rights issue. Ethnic groups are a crucial part of Myanmar’s political tapestry and their continued resistance will provide the junta a convenient excuse to hold onto real power after the 2010 elections and promised political transition.
International condemnation led by the United States and last year’s veiled threat to force aid on Myanmar by invoking the so-called “right to protect” principle has intensified the junta’s siege mentality. A glimpse of that bunker mindset was seen recently through images published of the underground tunnels and bunkers the generals have dug, with North Korean help, under their new capital and major military headquarters.
The near universal call for Suu Kyi’s release will have only entrenched the regime’s paranoid attitude towards the international community. Whether or not the generals can be pushed into reform action through behind-the-scenes overtures from China or even Russia is yet to be seen. Some have suggested the establishment of a multilateral negotiation forum similar to the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program for Myanmar, though Ban made no mention of such a body after his visit.
The UN has imposed strict sanctions on North Korea and with Ban’s spurned mission to Myanmar there will likely be pressure for a tougher Security Council resolution against the regime. Myanmar has so far escaped serious Security Council censure due to allies China’s and Russia’s support, though an exception was the council’s call in May for the release of all political prisoners. With or without such measures, and with Ban’s inability to manage a breakthrough, the UN clearly needs to rethink its Myanmar strategy.
