Monalisa Tase and Dr Monojit Das
The international order today is defined by shifting alliances, contested hegemony, and emergent threats. From Donald Trump’s controversial rhetoric targeting BRICS nations to escalating conflicts in Syria and political turmoil in South Korea, the need for nuanced strategic analysis has never been greater. India, as an emerging global power, finds itself at the confluence of these developments, requiring proactive measures to safeguard its interests and those of its diaspora. This op-ed explores these interconnected challenges and their broader implications.
1. Trump’s Tariff Threats and BRICS’ De-Dollarization Drive
Donald Trump’s return as U.S. president-elect has already begun to shape the contours of global economic discourse. His open criticism of BRICS nations and threats to impose 100% tariffs on their exports signal a renewed phase of economic nationalism. These actions are not only targeted at individual countries like China or Russia but aim to dissuade the bloc’s collective push for de-dollarization.
The De-Dollarization Agenda
BRICS, recently expanded to include strategic players such as Egypt, Iran, and the UAE, is advancing initiatives to reduce global reliance on the U.S. dollar. By establishing trade mechanisms based on local currencies and exploring a common digital currency, BRICS aims to circumvent the vulnerabilities imposed by dollar-dominated trade systems. For instance, sanctions against Russia have highlighted the dangers of dollar dependency for politically contentious states.
The initiative has gained momentum as U.S. monetary policies, including aggressive interest rate hikes, have caused global financial strain, especially in emerging markets. By creating alternative financial systems, BRICS nations hope to assert greater economic sovereignty.
Trump’s Counterattack
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric reflects a protectionist strategy aimed at reinforcing the dollar’s dominance. Tariffs against BRICS nations, however, risk creating trade wars, destabilizing global markets, and forcing emerging economies to double down on financial alternatives. While the U.S. remains the dominant economic force, these policies could accelerate the very de-dollarization they aim to prevent.
India’s Strategic Calculations
India stands at a crossroads. As a member of BRICS and a key U.S. partner, it must balance its growing role in a multipolar economic order with its reliance on Western markets. Diplomatic finesse will be essential to avoid being caught in the crossfire of these competing interests.
2. Syria: Rebels Resurgent Amid Prolonged Conflict
The Syrian civil war has taken a new turn with rebel factions regaining control over several cities. This resurgence poses serious humanitarian and geopolitical challenges, further complicating the fragile Middle Eastern landscape.
Humanitarian Crisis
Syria’s conflict has created one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. Over 6.8 million people have been displaced internally, while millions more have sought refuge in neighbouring countries. The latest rebel advances have disrupted already limited humanitarian aid efforts, exacerbating shortages of food, water, and medical supplies.
Regional Ramifications
Syria’s enduring instability is a microcosm of larger Middle Eastern tensions. The involvement of global powers—Russia and Iran backing Assad, while Turkey and Western nations support certain rebel groups—makes Syria a proxy battleground. The conflict’s persistence undermines counterterrorism efforts and risks spilling over into neighbouring regions.
India’s Humanitarian Role
Although geographically removed, India has a vested interest in Middle Eastern stability due to its dependence on energy imports and its significant expatriate population in the region. India could play a constructive role by advocating for ceasefire agreements, supporting reconstruction efforts, and increasing its contributions to international humanitarian aid programs.
3. South Korea: Martial Law and India’s Evacuation Imperative
The imposition of martial law in South Korea amidst rising tensions with North Korea has raised alarms, particularly for nations with significant populations in the region. For India, which has a growing community of students and professionals in South Korea, ensuring their safety must be a priority.
A Vulnerable Geography
South Korea’s geographic position, hemmed in by North Korea and surrounded by water, presents unique challenges. An evacuation effort would likely require naval resources, air support, and coordination with neighbouring Japan. Unlike land-based evacuations from Ukraine, operations in South Korea would demand extensive logistical planning.
India’s Diaspora Challenge
A large number of Indian students are enrolled in undergraduate, postgraduate, and doctoral programs across South Korea, with many others working in the tech, education, and business sectors. Any escalation in regional tensions could leave them stranded, requiring swift government intervention.
MEA’s Preparedness
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) must develop a comprehensive evacuation blueprint. This includes pre-emptive agreements with South Korean and Japanese authorities, deploying naval assets like INS Jalashwa and C-17 transport aircraft, and leveraging technology for real-time communication with Indian nationals. Lessons learned from Operation Ganga (Ukraine) could provide a useful template.
4. Bangladesh: Rising Insecurity for Minorities
Closer to home, the deteriorating condition of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh has become a matter of concern. Reports of targeted violence, forced conversions, and systemic discrimination have intensified in recent months, straining the secular fabric of the nation.
The Roots of Discord
Bangladesh’s Hindu population, which once accounted for nearly 22% of its demographic, has dwindled to less than 8% today. Socioeconomic marginalization, coupled with rising Islamist extremism, has exacerbated their vulnerability. Attacks during religious festivals and land-grabbing incidents have been widely reported.
India’s Role as a Neighbour
India’s ties with Bangladesh are built on shared history and cultural affinities, but the issue of minority rights cannot be sidelined. India must use its diplomatic channels to engage Dhaka in ensuring the safety and dignity of its minorities. Beyond rhetoric, India could support civil society initiatives aimed at fostering interfaith harmony and securing minority rights.
Cross-Border Challenges
The instability in Bangladesh has direct implications for India, including potential refugee influxes into border states like West Bengal and Assam. Managing this influx humanely while ensuring national security will require coordinated efforts between central and state governments.
Key Strategic Takeaways for India
1. Strengthening Naval and Air Capabilities. The situations in South Korea and other maritime zones highlight the importance of a robust blue-water navy and airlift capabilities. Investments in amphibious vessels, aerial refuelling tankers, and rapid-deployment forces are essential for India’s preparedness in emergency evacuations.
2. Proactive Diplomacy in BRICS and BeyondIndia must leverage its leadership role in BRICS to ensure the bloc remains united despite U.S. pressure. Simultaneously, maintaining strong bilateral ties with the U.S. is crucial for economic and strategic stability.
3. Championing Humanitarian Causes. Whether in Syria or Bangladesh, India’s advocacy for human rights and inclusive governance should extend beyond its borders. This enhances its image as a responsible global actor and strengthens its soft power.
4. Diaspora-Centric Policies with over 32 million Indians living abroad, safeguarding their interests must remain a central pillar of India’s foreign policy. Institutionalizing evacuation protocols, expanding consular services, and improving crisis communication channels will be critical.
5. Regional Stability through Multilateralism India’s commitment to regional peace—whether in the Middle East, South Asia, or the Korean Peninsula—must be rooted in multilateralism. By engaging with global organizations like the UN and ASEAN, India can contribute to crafting durable solutions for regional conflicts.
Conclusion
As the global order shifts toward multipolarity, nations are navigating a precarious landscape of economic realignments, political unrest, and security challenges. For India, this is both a test of resilience and an opportunity to lead. By balancing pragmatic diplomacy with principled leadership, India can emerge as a stabilizing force in an increasingly volatile world.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News)
