Monalisa Tase and Monojit Das
1Trump’s Tariffs: A Shift in Global Trade Alliances?
The announcement of fresh U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves across global markets, particularly in Asia. While reports from Chinese state media suggested that China, Japan, and South Korea had agreed to a joint response against these tariffs, Tokyo and Seoul have downplayed the claim.
This situation presents a significant challenge for India. On one hand, increased trade friction between the U.S. and its traditional Asian allies may create new economic opportunities for India to position itself as a more reliable partner for trade diversification. On the other hand, if Japan and South Korea align more closely with China, it could alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and limit India’s strategic space.
India must tread carefully, maintaining strong ties with the U.S. while capitalizing on any economic realignments in Asia. Strengthening partnerships through mechanisms like the Quad and deepening trade agreements with both Washington and Asian economies will be crucial navigating this shifting landscape.
2. Iran’s Renewed Hostility Toward Israel: Implications for India
Amid escalating regional tensions, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has once again called for the removal of Israel and vowed retaliation against any attack on Iran. These statements come in the wake of increasing hostility between Tehran and Washington, raising the spectre of a larger conflict in the Middle East.
Further intensifying concerns, satellite images analysed by The Associated Press reveal the deployment of at least six nuclear-capable B-2 Spirit bombers to Camp Thunder Bay on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. This strategic U.S. base, located south of India, places these bombers within striking distance of both Iran and Yemen. The deployment comes as the U.S. continues an aggressive airstrike campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels and maintains heightened vigilance over Iran’s advancing nuclear program. The presence of these aircraft signals Washington’s readiness for potential military action, particularly against Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
For India, this situation presents both risks and opportunities. As a major importer of Iranian oil, any escalation could disrupt energy supplies, affecting India’s economic stability. At the same time, growing tensions could lead to increased pressure on India from both the U.S. and Israel to distance itself from Tehran.
New Delhi must prioritize diplomatic engagements, leveraging India’s historical ties with Iran while ensuring its strategic interests in the Middle East remain safeguarded. Strengthening energy partnerships with alternative suppliers, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, will also be crucial in mitigating potential supply disruptions.
3. Operation Brahma: India’s Humanitarian Assistance to Myanmar
Following the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, India swiftly launched ‘Operation Brahma,’ deploying a specialized medical task force to provide urgent humanitarian assistance. The 118-member team from the elite Shatrujeet Brigade Medical Responders is set to establish a 60-bed Medical Treatment Centre in Myanmar to aid disaster victims.
This initiative highlights India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and its role as a first responder in regional crises. Beyond humanitarian considerations, it also serves to strengthen India-Myanmar ties at a time when China has been expanding its influence in the region.
For India, this operation is not just about relief but also about demonstrating strategic goodwill, reinforcing regional leadership, and counterbalancing China’s growing clout in Southeast Asia.
4. Pakistan’s Ceasefire Violations: Growing Security Concerns for India
In yet another instance of border tensions, the Pakistan Army violated the ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in the Krishna Ghati sector of Jammu and Kashmir’s Poonch district. The unprovoked firing from Pakistani forces prompted a swift and strong retaliation from the Indian Army.
This escalation underscores Pakistan’s continued use of low-intensity conflicts to challenge India’s security. Given the strategic significance of the LoC, these ceasefire violations could escalate into broader military confrontations, increasing the risk of regional instability.
For India, maintaining military preparedness along the western border remains a priority. Additionally, diplomatic efforts through backchannel talks and international pressure mechanisms will be crucial in containing cross-border tensions. Strengthening counter-terrorism cooperation with allies like the U.S. and France could further help in addressing the root causes of these provocations.
5. U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil: The Impact on India and Global Energy Markets
The Biden administration’s proposed sanctions on buyers of Russian oil have taken an unexpected turn, with reports indicating that Australia has emerged as one of the largest importers of Russian-origin oil through Indian and Turkish refineries. Other unusual buyers include the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Malaysia.
For India, this development presents a complex scenario. While India has continued purchasing Russian oil at a concession price despite Western sanctions, the inclusion of unexpected buyers like Australia complicates the geopolitical narrative. If Australia, a key U.S. ally, is indirectly purchasing Russian oil, it could weaken the legitimacy of Western sanctions and provide India with more diplomatic room to justify its own imports.
However, heightened scrutiny from Washington could lead to increased pressure on India to reduce its Russian oil imports. Balancing energy security while navigating geopolitical pressures will require strategic diplomacy. Engaging in discussions with Western policymakers to carve out exemptions or seeking alternative suppliers, such as Venezuela or Iran (should sanctions ease), could be viable options.
Conclusion: India’s Strategic Imperatives in a Fractured World Order
The developments of April 2025 build an increasing complexity of global geopolitics. Trump’s tariffs have the potential to redraw trade alignments in Asia, Iran’s aggressive rhetoric threatens stability in the Middle East, and cross-border tensions with Pakistan highlight persistent security concerns. At the same time, India’s humanitarian efforts in Myanmar reinforce its regional leadership, while energy geopolitics presents both challenges and opportunities.
For India, navigating these challenges will require a multipronged approach:
• Strengthening Trade Diplomacy: Engaging proactively with Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN nations to counterbalance China’s influence in trade realignments.
• Energy Security Measures: Diversifying energy imports and negotiating long-term agreements to reduce dependency on sanctioned oil.
• Military Readiness and Diplomacy: Maintaining strong deterrence along the LoC while pursuing diplomatic avenues to manage tensions with Pakistan.
• Expanding Humanitarian Outreach: Leveraging relief efforts like ‘Operation Brahma’ to reinforce India’s role as a regional leader.
As global power equations continue to shift, India must remain agile, pragmatic, and proactive in securing its national interests. The ability to balance strategic autonomy with deeper global engagements will define India’s role in shaping the emerging world order.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University.
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News).
