A Timeline: How Nagaland got to 2000 COVID-19 cases

Table based on COVID-19 Dashboard, Government of Nagaland https://covid19.nagaland.gov.in/.
Table based on COVID-19 Dashboard, Government of Nagaland https://covid19.nagaland.gov.in/.

Morung Express News
Dimapur | August 3

On Monday, Nagaland witnessed the highest daily surge in COVID-19 cases with 194 new infections to cross the 2000 threshold.

The state logged the first 1000 cases on July 20. 

Analysis of Nagaland’s pandemic trajectory so far since the official registration of the first cases on May 25 suggested that the infection rates have been burgeoning, particularly from July 23, with days taken to cross each successive hundred becoming shorter and shorter.

First 100 to 1000: Turtle’s pace 
According to data given provided the Nagaland COVID-19 Dashboard, it took 13 days to reach the first 100 mark in the state since the detection of 3 cases on May 25. (See Table)

Thereafter, cases increase at turtle’s pace and it took 12 days and 14 days to reach 200 and 300 marks respectively on June 6 and June 10.

Since then, the rate of infections, based on days taken to get past each successive hundred, have increased considerably, ranging from 3-5 days  till the first 1000-mark on June 20.

Most importantly, it took nearly 2 months (57 days) since the confirmations of first cases on May 25 to cross the 1000-mark on July 20.

The increase from the first 100 cases on June 6 to the first 1000 cases on July 20 also took 51 days. 

Thereafter, the numbers of infections have been increasing at breakneck pace

1000 to 2000: Breakneck pace
Since July 20, the longest duration taken to cross each successive hundred has been 3 days. However, twice, the threshold doubled the next day. 

Moreover, July 23 onwards, either 1 or 2 days were taken to surpass the consecutive hundred mark. 

To compare, it took 57 days to reach the first 1000 cases in Nagaland, however, it took just two weeks (11 days) to reach the next 1000 threshold, thereby indicating that the infections are increasing by over four-fold.

Is Nagaland entering into a new phase of infections since July 23? Inference based purely on absolute figure is indicative of such a trajectory. 

In the last four days, the State has reported over 100 new daily spikes of cases and on two occasions - August 1 and 2, the hundred threshold doubled the next day. The State registered the highest single-day spike of 194 cases on August 3.

Breakdown of total cases
From the total number of cases, data from the Health Department informed that 979 were returnees, 805 from the armed forces, 162 frontline workers, 150 traced contacts, and 33 “others.”

It was added that the “others” refer to cases related to the Nagaland Legislative Assembly/Raj Bhavan and “patients excluding returnees.”