Nagaland: Positivity makes steady climb as detection decreases

Doubling Time of Cases as well as testing, positivity, recovery and mortality rates in Nagaland as on September 25 according to Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, Department of Health and Family Welfare.
Doubling Time of Cases as well as testing, positivity, recovery and mortality rates in Nagaland as on September 25 according to Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, Department of Health and Family Welfare.

•    Testing improves to 37.58 per 1000
•    Recovery rate crosses 80 percent

Morung Express News
Dimapur | September 26

The COVID-19 positivity rate continued a steady climb in Nagaland even as the overall detection showed a decreasing trend. As per the latest COVID trend data in Nagaland published by the state Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, Department of Health & Family Welfare on September 26, the positivity rate fell from 12 % during the past week (September 19-25) but “remains high at 10%.” 

Overall, positivity increased to 7.52 % from 7.38 %, last week. The national average, at present, stands at 8.40 %. 
It also observed, “The %age of ‘positive traced contacts’ among total confirmed cases has increased from 1% in the second week of July to 22% as of this week.” It was 21 % as of last week (September 18). 

In total, 23,916 contacts have been traced by surveillance teams, including 9,497 described as “primary contacts.”

33% of positive cases detected during the past week (September 19-25) were from traced contacts or 136 out of the 411 cases reported during the same period. It was though lower than the 228 positive cases reported from the armed forces. Returnees/travelers comprised 34 of the total cases detected, followed by 13 frontline workers. 

As stated previously, this week’s analysis also observed that positivity among students have steadily increased in the past 3-4 weeks “and they could spread infections to the higher risk groups (parents, family members etc).” It added, “Reason for increase in the number of young adults and students reporting COVID-19 infections in Nagaland in the past few weeks could be due to mobility of young people to their workplaces, friends hanging out in restaurants/close settings with no regard to the 3Ws.”

At 5862 total cases as on September 26, the number of cases was still to double from the last doubling up recorded on August 7, when the state recorded a total of 3322 cases. 

The testing rate improved to 37.58 per thousand during the week. But the national average jumped to 52.16 per thousand from 46.36 per thousand during the same period. 

There was however significant improvement in the recovery rate, increasing to 80.39 % from the previous week’s 76 %. For comparison, the country’s recovery rate currently stands at over 82 %. 

The state’s mortality rate remained at 0.19 %, while the country’s decreased to 1.58 from 1.62 % during the past week. 

Case distribution
Half of all the cases in Nagaland so far were reported from Dimapur, followed by Kohima contributing 32 % of the cases. The contributions of other districts were in single digit and decimal %age points.

The armed forces continued to remain as the single largest contributor at 47 %, followed by returnees at 25 %, traced contacts at 22 % and frontline workers at 6 %. 

Among the positive traced contacts, household contacts comprised 34 %, government employees- 30 %, students- 18 %, self employed- 15 % and 3 % were described as unemployed. Further, majority positive traced contacts are below 40 years of age.

98% of the active cases were asymptomatic.  It added, “There are 4 cases currently with moderate symptoms and 3 severe cases with one patient on ventilator support. 20 cases have mild symptoms (as on September 25).”

It reiterated that the actual impact on the high-risk groups (senior citizens and those with co-morbidities) has not been seen yet.